| The Gold Forecast


August 19, 2016 - 5:17pm
Published on Aug 19, 2016

Gold prices close the week lower ahead of the big central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, so what is the best way for gold traders to play this market? According to veteran technical analyst Gary Wagner of thegoldforecast.com, gold prices need to hold key support at $1,330 an ounce. On the upside, Wagner said he would like to see the market break above $1,370.

Gold prices settled flat on the week with December gold futures settling at $1,346.20 an ounce Friday. However, Wagner told Kitco News he thinks gold’s downside potential is limited. ’I think what we’ve seen with the decline in prices this week was really factoring in the expectation of a rate hike this year. That is now factored into the market,’ he said. As markets shift focus to...

August 4, 2016 - 6:00pm

Gold prices ended the U.S. day session modestly higher Thursday, boosted by the announcement from the Bank of England that it is easing its monetary policy for the first time since 2009. Traders and investors are now awaiting Friday morning’s July U.S. employment report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to show 180,000 jobs were created last month, explains Gary Wagner of the popular website, thegoldforecast.com. He noted that tomorrow's number will be key for the metal. Wagner is sticking to his previous gold call of $1,450 an ounce. Gold rose even as the dollar climbed, which tends to be negative for commodities priced in the currency. A stronger dollar tends to diminish the appeal of assets priced in dollar terms. December Comex gold futures...

July 12, 2016 - 5:44pm

Despite gold’s pullback, settling the day at $1,335.30 an ounce, veteran technical analyst Gary Wagner say he remains bullish. So much so, gold may rally to $1,445 over the next three months, he told Kitco News Tuesday after the close. Gold prices are struggling amid rallying equities and crude oil prices. Is oil stealing gold’s thunder? “We’ve seen fireworks in gold,” he said. “My sense with oil is that we could see sparks but we are not going to get the kind of fireworks we’ve been getting with gold and silver.”

May 24, 2016 - 6:47pm

The 800,000-pound Godzilla in the room at the moment is the fear of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, says long-time technical analyst Gary Wagner. ‘As of Friday, interest-rate futures were pricing in a 30% probability of an increase at the June 14-15 meeting, up from 5% several days earlier, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool,’ explains Wagner, the editor of the popular newsletter, thegoldforecast.com. Traders are desperately seeking some clarity in regards to the Fed's next move, trying to determine gold's direction, he told Kitco News. ‘[T]he lack of fiscal policy by the U.S. Congress forces investors to rely far too heavily on monetary policy as a barometer. That is very wrong,’ Wagner warns. On Tuesday, gold futures hit a 4-week low as the dollar index hit a seven-week high...

April 11, 2016 - 9:19pm

With gold prices posting solid gains on Monday, long-time technical analyst Gary Wagner, says the metal has found its floor.

“When gold touched the levels of $1,040 -$1,045 an ounce earlier this year, those turned out to be the bottom and I think that will be the bottom,” the founder and editor of the thegoldforecast.com said in an interview with Kitco News.

Both gold and silver hit nearly three-week highs on Monday. June Comex gold settled the day 1% higher at $1,258 an ounce while May Comex silver settled at $15.976 an ounce, up nearly 4% on the day.

The metals rallied as the U.S. dollar index dropped to an eight-month low following the perceived dovish rhetoric coming from U.S. Federal Reserve officials. Wagner added that major support for the yellow metal comes...

February 5, 2016 - 6:22am

Gold prices ended the U.S. day session solidly higher and hit a 3.5-month high Thursday. ‘The falling dollar is intriguing for the gold trade we are in, the price of crude, and for future potential upward movement of equities pricing,’ said Gary Wagner, editor of the popular newsletter, thegolddorecast.com. Silver prices also scored a 3.5-month high Thursday. Safe-haven and technical buying continue to support the yellow metal amid volatile world stock markets that presently still have a downside bias. April Comex gold was last up $15.30 at $1,156.60 an ounce. March Comex silver was last up $0.126 at $14.86 an ounce. ‘The modest rise in the yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries would suggest that not all safe havens are created equal. Gold and silver seem to be exerting a strong...

January 15, 2016 - 5:31pm

Kitco News speaks with technical analyst Gary Wagner to see where he thinks gold will close for the week. After seeing its biggest one-day drop since December, the yellow metal moved higher Friday as U.S. equities were clobbered. Kitco News, January 15, 2016.

December 11, 2015 - 6:22pm

It’s all about the Fed next week, with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding on December 16 and markets anticipating the first interest rate hike in nine years. What could happen to gold? According to longtime technical analysts Gary Wagner, the metal could see more downside pressure next week. ‘If we get liftoff as anticipated we could see further erosion in gold,’ he told Kitco News Friday afternoon. ‘I would really want to watch the key levels at $1,061, and $1,050,’ he added, stating that these have been the recent lows in gold. February comex gold futures saw some volatility early Friday when the metal rallied up to a high of $1,078.60 an ounce, but has now settled a few cents off that level. According to Wagner, the main thing investors should focus on next week is...

December 4, 2015 - 5:08pm

After Friday’s big move, could $1,000 gold still be in the cards for 2015? Gold ended the week up 2% after coming close to a six-year low earlier in the week. Despite Friday’s price action, Gary Wagner, editor of thegoldforecast.com, said that $1,000 gold cannot be ruled out. He said that gold could still be drawn toward the $1,000 round number and a retest of that key psychological level remains possible. In this edition of Kitco’s Chart This, Wagner comments on whether gold is saying, 'who cares' to the rate hike or whether the U.S. Fed’s plan was priced in long ago. Gold’s rally started in earnest Friday, following the release of November’s nonfarm payrolls report, which was relatively in line with expectations. The data showed that 211,000 jobs were created in November with...

November 13, 2015 - 9:55am

As gold prices continue to struggle following Thursday’s fall to a near 5.5-year low, one technician says he wouldn’t be surprised to see the metal move lower. Commenting on famed economist Nouriel Roubini’s call for $1,000 gold in 2015, Gary Wagner told Kitco News that ‘he could absolutely be correct.’ According to Wagner, it is important to look at the intraday low of $1,073/oz gold hit Thursday. ‘That’s a critical point in that it creates a double bottom…secondly, it is a 61% retracement of larger rally from about $550 up to $1,920/oz,’ he explained. Looking at the charts, Wagner says his range for gold right now is between $1,072-1,100, but he is even considering the $1,000 support level. ‘I think the action that we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks with the dramatic decline is...