| The Gold Forecast

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January 15, 2016 - 5:31pm

Kitco News speaks with technical analyst Gary Wagner to see where he thinks gold will close for the week. After seeing its biggest one-day drop since December, the yellow metal moved higher Friday as U.S. equities were clobbered. Kitco News, January 15, 2016.

December 11, 2015 - 6:22pm

It’s all about the Fed next week, with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding on December 16 and markets anticipating the first interest rate hike in nine years. What could happen to gold? According to longtime technical analysts Gary Wagner, the metal could see more downside pressure next week. ‘If we get liftoff as anticipated we could see further erosion in gold,’ he told Kitco News Friday afternoon. ‘I would really want to watch the key levels at $1,061, and $1,050,’ he added, stating that these have been the recent lows in gold. February comex gold futures saw some volatility early Friday when the metal rallied up to a high of $1,078.60 an ounce, but has now settled a few cents off that level. According to Wagner, the main thing investors should focus on next week is...

December 4, 2015 - 5:08pm

After Friday’s big move, could $1,000 gold still be in the cards for 2015? Gold ended the week up 2% after coming close to a six-year low earlier in the week. Despite Friday’s price action, Gary Wagner, editor of thegoldforecast.com, said that $1,000 gold cannot be ruled out. He said that gold could still be drawn toward the $1,000 round number and a retest of that key psychological level remains possible. In this edition of Kitco’s Chart This, Wagner comments on whether gold is saying, 'who cares' to the rate hike or whether the U.S. Fed’s plan was priced in long ago. Gold’s rally started in earnest Friday, following the release of November’s nonfarm payrolls report, which was relatively in line with expectations. The data showed that 211,000 jobs were created in November with...

November 13, 2015 - 9:55am

As gold prices continue to struggle following Thursday’s fall to a near 5.5-year low, one technician says he wouldn’t be surprised to see the metal move lower. Commenting on famed economist Nouriel Roubini’s call for $1,000 gold in 2015, Gary Wagner told Kitco News that ‘he could absolutely be correct.’ According to Wagner, it is important to look at the intraday low of $1,073/oz gold hit Thursday. ‘That’s a critical point in that it creates a double bottom…secondly, it is a 61% retracement of larger rally from about $550 up to $1,920/oz,’ he explained. Looking at the charts, Wagner says his range for gold right now is between $1,072-1,100, but he is even considering the $1,000 support level. ‘I think the action that we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks with the dramatic decline is...

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October 13, 2015 - 5:17am

Published on Oct 13, 2015

As gold prices continue to rise Tuesday, one technical analyst says he expects the momentum to continue. ‘We saw what I believe is the absolute bottom in terms of gold prices when it came intraday down to about $1,071 and since that, we’ve seen the market rise,’ Gary Wagner, editor of thegoldforecast.com, told Kitco News in an interview Tuesday. ‘I think we will probably see some stabilization.’ According to Wagner, it is also interesting that gold prices and equities are moving in tandem, as they did in 2009, he said. December gold futures were last up 0.11% at $1,165.80 an ounce, while major U.S. indices remain flat on the day. Looking at silver, Wagner said to expect more volatility for the metal ahead. December Comex silver futures continued their...

October 2, 2015 - 5:47pm
Published on Oct 2, 2015

Although gold prices roared higher Friday in the immediate aftermath of surprisingly weak nonfarm payrolls data, one analyst says he still needs to see technical evidence in the market to become bullish long-term. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 142,000 jobs were created in September, well below expectations of 200,000 jobs. ‘[It] was such a low number that the current take at least for today is that certainly the Fed can’t raise interest rates this year, and probably not until March of next year,’ Gary Wagner, editor of thegoldforecast.com, told Kitco News Friday afternoon. ‘That kind of perception, I believe, is what has really propelled gold to higher pricing.’ December Comex gold futures rose roughly 2% on the day, hitting...

September 25, 2015 - 4:43pm

After hitting a four-week high earlier this week, gold was down on Friday but was still preparing to end its second consecutive week in positive territory, showing gains of 0.5%. Spot gold was last down $6.10 at 1148.00 an ounce. Gary Wagner, editor of thegoldforecast.com told Kitco News on Friday that an ‘interesting scenario,’ is brewing for the metal. ‘My belief is that once gold hit $1,092, it was a significant bottom -- once we bounced off of that we started to build a base. I think we are continuing to move on that rally,’ he said. ‘We did get a nice bounce as the market came down earlier, it thought it would go to $1,115 – but we have a great support at $1,121’ he added. As for Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s after-market speech on Thursday, Wagner viewed her talk as a litmus test to...

September 11, 2015 - 10:53am

Gold is trading sideways ahead of next week’s much anticipated Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) but the metal managed to rebound after hitting a 4-week low on Wednesday. One technical analyst explained that as long as gold is trading above $1,108-$1,109 -- the metal has the opportunity to see a bounce to the upside. ‘[I]f it breaks below $1,109 it could probably run to $1,095 – however, as of now, it seems to have found some support,’ said Gary Wagner, editor at the goldforecast.com. Wagner said he is paying close attention to the gold’s movement. ‘[T]he 21- day moving average has actually crossed above the longer term moving average, which is a golden cross in technical terms, and it could be conveying that we found some support in gold,’ he said in an interview with Kitco...

September 4, 2015 - 12:32pm

Gold prices ended the U.S. day session lower Thursday, but the focus for the metal is now squarely on Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report. ‘It is going to be a really important number, especially if we get a number under expectation,’ said Gary Wagner, editor of the goldforecast.com, ahead of Friday’s data. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to be up 200,000, or slightly above, in August. This report is the most important economic report of the week, and arguably of the month, Wagner said in an interview with Kitco News. Wagner explained that Friday’s U.S. jobs report will be a determining factor on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve makes a rate hike in September. ‘If it is under expectations, it doesn’t bode for any rate hike to be implemented,’ Wagner said. Until the central...

August 20, 2015 - 3:39pm

As gold prices glitter Thursday, the day after the release of the Fed’s July meeting minutes, Gary Wagner tells Kitco News the technicals are faring well. “We’re at a critical point -- roughly the $1,150-1,155 area — and a break and a close above this area, really signals something significant,” he says. “We could actually see this market trade as high as $1,170 before correcting,” he adds. Looking at the fundamentals, Gary says that gold is garnering support from weaker equity markets as well as uncertainty in the global economy. “And that, of course, is affecting the Fed decision on when they will pull the trigger on rates,” he notes. Based on the charts, Gary says if gold can break through some key Fibonacci retracement levels, the metal may be headed above $1,300 an ounce. “If we...