Previous Reports | The Gold Forecast

Previous Reports

Daily Report: Tue, 12/17/2013 - 14:49

Will Wednesday be THE day that tapering is announced? And, even if it is, what will it mean for gold prices?

First, it probably will not happen. Too many stars are aligned (or misaligned, as the case might be) for this to be the correct moment.

December is an awkward time of the trading year. Volumes are short, people's minds are elsewhere, and we are hard-pressed to believe the Fed wants to surprise anyone while they're drinking their fourth eggnog.

It very well may be that current Chair, Ben Bernanke, will not pull the trigger so that his successor, Janet Yellen can make her... Read more

Weekly Report: Fri, 12/13/2013 - 15:13

As we have maintained recently there is going to be a lot of volatility in the precious metals markets through the holidays.

The volatility will continue to be related to small volumes, interrupted trading weeks, and fewer players in the game, as well as fewer analysts hard at their grindstones.

Of course, until the FOMC actually delivers their message come next Wednesday, there will also be uncertainty revolving around tapering of QE3. We can't reiterate enough the thought that once tapering does begin - whenever that might be - it will be a graduated pullback, not an enormous cut.... Read more

Daily Report: Fri, 12/13/2013 - 14:06

Laozi, the 6th century B.C. scholar knew about the future. His view of it concludes today's fundamentals section of our email.

 One set of stellar data for the U.S. economy and one set of moderately negative data, but traders and investors focus on the former while ignoring the latter. From a world composed of 1's and 0's, we have moved to a world of only 1's.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% in November, beating market forecasts of a 0.6% increase. Core retail sales, which have automobiles stripped out of the stats, rose 0.4%, well above forecasts for... Read more

Daily Report: Thu, 12/12/2013 - 16:01

There are only 20 days left in 2013. We can look into some of the baseline reasons that gold's price has dropped now, and then review the year in further detail as time goes on.

 The dumping of gold from ETF holdings has had an intensely negative effect on the price of gold. In retrospect this seems natural, since ETFs are essentially derivative instruments that magnify an already leveraged trade - meaning regular... Read more