Gold Holds Ground at $4,000 and Moves Higher

Gold gained $72.30, or 1.80%, on Tuesday based on the most active August futures contract, marking the largest gain for the precious metal since July 2. Gold moved higher on hopes that a Middle East ceasefire may be forthcoming.

On Monday, an Iranian official reported that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire as part of Washington’s attempt to salvage its interim deal. This had a direct effect on rate hike expectations, increasing the odds of a rate hike this month from 16% yesterday to 26% today. Traders are now assigning a 15.8% probability that rates will be a full half-percent higher by the end of September’s FOMC meeting.

Traders should take this news with a grain of salt, however, as we have heard these kinds of hopium-laced remarks many times before. Contradicting the notion of easing tensions in the Middle East, both crude oil and the U.S. dollar traded higher on the day.

WTI crude oil rose by nearly $2.00, or 2.32%, to $84.39 per barrel, representing a 25.95% increase over the last 24 days. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index rose for its fourth consecutive session, breaching the 101 level, something that, aside from recent weeks, had not occurred since May 2025. The dollar now stands at 101.20 after gaining 0.23% on the day.

Silver futures have shown more resilience than their sister metal over the past few days, recording a third consecutive winning session on Tuesday. Tuesday’s gains lifted the metal by a full $2.00, or 3.50%, to $59.07 in the futures market.

Spot silver is finding resistance around $58.77, which correlates with the 20-day simple moving average, but it has yet to test the 20-day exponential moving average at $59.81.

A break above the 20-day EMA could signal that a breakout is imminent, making a close above the $60 level in spot silver worth watching. Spot gold’s own 20-day EMA suggests a similar outcome may be possible. That average currently sits about $10 above Tuesday’s high at $4,092. Therefore, a break above $4,100 in spot gold could also be viewed as a bullish catalyst.

Whishing you as always good trading,