Gold Prices are Higher for a Second Straight Consecutive Session

Gold’s 3rd Wave; Projected Triple Top in Gold by Year’s End

Gold futures’ most active December contract (GCZ2026) jumped up by $86 on Thursday’s trading session recovering almost 2% of value lost in last week’s sizable decline. Last week and earlier this week we discussed the criteria that would need to be met for gold to continue to climb to higher ground versus giving some of last month’s advance back or entering a period of consolidation. Today’s price action was exactly what gold bulls needed to be re-assured that the path of least resistance is higher.

“Crucially, gold futures have managed to remain above a key support zone formed by a historical area of support and resistance dating back to the end of 2025 at $4,474, which lines up closely with the simple 100-day moving average, now at $4,468. That historical support also aligns perfectly with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,474. The retracement data set is of gold’s recent advance from its lows around $4,000 to recent highs made above $4,700. As long as gold can defend this level, it will most likely continue higher”

  - Excerpt from The Gold Forecast, August 31, 2026

Today, we got a solid move and close above what we were calling a necessary level that must be taken out for confirmation that gold would indeed continue higher before any sort of retracement or correction occurred. This level was formed from confluent technical indicators including a price point that had marked tops and bottoms dating back to 2025 a total of seven times. This level at roughly $4,474 also aligned with gold’s simple 100-day moving average as well as the 38.2% retracement of the run up from this year’s lows to the recent top made on August 25. The 38.2% retracement is the by far the primary retracement level seen more often than not at the end point of a second wave. All this means that not only is gold indeed in its impulse wave 3 but also that the structure of this primary wave count is so far a textbook example of what technicians would call a standard impulse phase meaning it should be  easier to forecast than most.

Yesterday, we hypothesized that gold had begun a new bullish wave count and that we were currently in an impulse wave 3. In Elliot wave theory wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves (1, 3, 5) and usually exceeds the distance covered in wave 1. A common technique to forecast where the conclusion of a wave 3 is to draw in a 1.618 extension of wave 1 beginning at the conclusion of wave 2. 3rd waves have the highest probability of becoming extended and a 1.618% extension is the most common relationship between waves 1 and 3 in an extended scenario, 1.272, 2, 2.618 also are seen frequently.

With that in mind, a conservative target for this wave is $5,070, which would represent a 1-to-1 ratio between the first and third waves. If we use a 1.618% ratio between waves 1 and 3, gold could rise to $5,523. This aligns with our projections from the past month, which point to gold forming a triple top before year-end.

Wishing you as always, good trading,