Gold Tests $4,000: The ‘60% To 70% Probability’ Of A Bottom

Submitted by Gary S. Wagner on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 - 19:04.

Recorded June 12 2026 -Gold futures tested the key $4,000 psychological level this week under intense selling pressure before catching a late Friday bid. Gary Wagner joins Jeremy Szafron, Senior Anchor of Kitco News, to break down the technical damage and explain why he sees a "60% to 70% probability" that gold has established a firm technical floor.

Wagner outlines the critical resistance levels gold must break to save its broader bullish trend, noting that a return to record highs will be a "hard climb back up." The analysis also covers silver's resilience as it reclaims its 200-day moving average, outperforming gold during the recent drawdown. Plus, Wagner weighs in on how macro liquidity shifts - including the $75 billion SpaceX IPO and reports of a possible interim U.S.-Iran agreement around the Strait of Hormuz - are impacting the charts, and what the CME's upcoming move to 24/7 trading for retail gold contracts means for technical weekend gaps.

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Gold Tests $4,000 & Market Macro Shifts

01:45 - The $4,000 Technical Floor & Support Levels

06:40 - $6,000 Elliott Wave Target & Resistance at $4,370

09:50 - Inflation Data & Fed Rate Hike Probabilities

11:50 - Silver Outperforms & Reclaims 200-Day Moving Average

21:20 - CME 24/7 Gold Futures Trading Impact

25:00 - Gary Wagner's Technical Roadmap for Next Week