Disinflation Runs Down Fed Rate Raise Possibility As If In A Game Of Frogster | The Gold Forecast

Disinflation Runs Down Fed Rate Raise Possibility As If In A Game Of Frogster

August 19, 2015 - 5:01pm

 by Gary Wagner

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

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Gold Forecast: Proper Action

We took profits today on our gold trade when our OCO (One Cancels the Other) order was filled. 

Bought  @ 1104.50  
Sold @ 1128 (+ $23.50 ).

 

Gold Market Forecast

Whenever we create a trading strategy we also create a double edged sword.

On the one hand when we use trailing stops we stand the chance of giving up much of our move if the market moves in our anticipated direction, but then corrects to hit our stop.

On the other hand when we use an OCO order, we stand the chance of the market hitting our numbers and trading right through them.

In either case if we make a reasonable profit the strategy is sound.

In this particular case we placed an OCO at a Fibonacci retracement resistance level. As the market rally today it not only touched upon our particular price point but traded right through that current resistance level.

As I will speak about on today’s show I have no issues with buying a breakout, or buying the dip. If in fact we see our former level of resistance at 1132 become our current level of support, we will look to reenter this market either today or tomorrow from the long side.

Trending Markets: Proper Action

Monday we issued a SELL signal in Crude Oil:

Maintain short @ 41.86

Maintain stop just above 43.61

Trending Markets Forecast

The whole idea behind the development of Trending Markets was to open our playing field so that we could identify markets that could be trending in a defined and extended manner.

One of the markets we identified as having these characteristics is crude oil. We have made a total of two trades in this market with the first trade knocking us out with a small profit.

I believe that the current market conditions putting crude oil prices under pressure will continue. Going into the September through November period typically we have a smaller demand for oil (meaning gasoline use declines and demand for heating oil is still slow) than in other months. That is a dynamic that could move crude oil prices dramatically lower, possibly as low as $33 a barrel. It is for that reason that I am recommending we maintain our current position in crude oil as well as our current stop.

Sentiment Indicator: