Gold Ends Week Up Amid Slight Consolidation But With Long Term Bullish Overtones

October 16, 2015 - 5:13pm

 by Gary Wagner

Gold was pushed and pulled in two directions today, but nevertheless ended the week just off 3-1/2 month highs.

Indeed, the yellow precious metal eased on Friday as a recovering dollar tugged on prices and investors 
decided to take their portfolios into the weekend a little lighter in gold. There was also minor profit taking.

On the other hand, doubts over whether the Fed will press ahead with a U.S. rate rise in either October or 
December kept the metal on track for its second consecutive weekly rise.

We are also facing a couple of Federal Reserve speeches next week. Governor Lael Brainard speaks at 10 AM 
on Monday, while Governor Jerome Powell speaks at 8:15 AM on Tuesday; Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on 
Tuesday morning.

"There is still high uncertainty in the market about when the Fed will raise rates," Commerzbank analyst 
Daniel Briesemann said. "Until we have seen the first interest rate hike, or at least the announcement of it, 
gold should still be under pressure."

Gold also lost support in the physical market, where consumers’ buying interest dropped due to the 
recent price rally. This was particularly evident on the Shanghai exchange.

Palladium slipped today, as well, with some selling distinctly attributable to profit taking.

In other markets, crude oil nudged up on news of the seventh straight week of drops in the U.S. rig count.

U.S. equities were indecisive on Friday, leading to modest gains across the three indices. 
The Dow was held back by down trending choppy trade in transports, which affected Caterpillar 
and other heavy vehicle manufacturers.

NASDAQ was buffeted by bellwether Apple as well as by the biotech component, which has been in 
a volatile phase.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

Sentiment Indicator:

Gold Forecast: Proper Action

Last Thursday (10-08) we sent out a special trade alert in which we recommended initiating long positions in both gold and palladium.

This morning we sent out a "TRADE ALERT" suggesting that we pull profits on our current trade

Long gold position @ 1144.00 - Sold (covered) @ 1177 for a profit of $33.00 ($3300.00 profit per contract)

Long palladium position at 706.00 - Sold (covered) @ 698  for a loss of $8.00 ($400 loss per contract)

Gold Market Forecast

Although I am extremely bullish long-term, price action over the last two days has alluded to the potential that gold prices along with the rest of the precious metals complex could consolidate and move lower.

On today's weekend review we will look at recent price action and specifically a recent high in gold which exceeded 1190 intraday. A three river evening star (candlestick pattern) that could be pointing to a potential short-term top in the market.

That being the case we did send out a special trade alert this morning recommending that we pull profits on our current trade. Specifically we will look at price targets if in fact we do see some back fill in the market to reenter from the long side

Trending Markets: Proper Action

We are flat with no active trades as stops were hit on Tuesday

S&P Trade

long @ 1967.08 stop hit @ 1997.00 for a profit of 30 points ($7500 per contract)

Crude Trade

Long at 48.47 per barrel stop hit at 47 for a loss of $1.50 (- $3000.00 per contract)

Trending Markets Forecast

There is absolutely no doubt that the US equities markets have found real support just above its 50 day moving average. Although we saw US equities correct ever so slightly this week, the Standard & Poor's 500 came back with extreme vigor and strength after trading to just above its 50 day moving average.

Based upon this quick recovery we would not be surprised to see the Standard & Poor's 500 trade to higher ground moving back to test the longer-term 200 day moving average