Will the Last Brit to leave the EU please turn off the lights!

June 24, 2016 - 6:38pm

 by Gary Wagner

How could the analysts, forecasters and odds makers get it so wrong?

Just prior to the UK referendum, traders acted as if the outcome was an easy read, with a guaranteed outcome: that the referendum for Britain to exit the EU (Brexit) would fail, and the UK would remain in the EU.

Based upon this assumption, traders converted this newfound bullish sentiment into an impressive rally in the European equities markets. This sentiment carried over into the US equities, culminating with the Dow closing over 18000. This risk-on demeanor also put pressure on safe haven assets like gold and the US dollar.

That warm and fuzzy feeling would be short lived. As the votes began to be counted, and an unexpected outcome began to emerge.

Contrary to market sentiment, British citizens voted 51.89% to 48.11% to leave the European Union. It very quickly became obvious that the majority of traders got it wrong – really wrong.

What followed was a predictable sharp selloff in European equities and currencies, a sharp selloff in US equities futures and a move to safe heaven assets such as gold and US dollars.

Gold prices, which had dropped to 1249 intraday on Thursday, began one of the most impressive rallies this trader has ever witnessed, moving about $100 dollars to 1362 in less than three hours.

The carnage to equities was brutal. The DAX, for example, traded 10% lower at the lows of achieved on Thursday trading session.

 In pre-opening trading the DJIA was down over 600 points at its low last night before circuit breakers halted trading for a short time.

As of the markets close today, gold closed at $1320 up about $58.00, and the DJIA lost 3.39 % of value to close at 17,399.

With the outcome of the referendum for the UK to exit the EU now a certainty, there are more questions than answers, more uncertainty than certainty. What lingers is the question of what effect this move will have on global financial markets, as well as other EU Countries that are also disenchanted with the EU.

One thing is for certain, this move by the UK to leave the EU is only beginning, and it will take years to complete. How this action will change the world as we know it is unknown, which is indeed one of the only things we can be certain about.

Clearly this could be an indication that we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the European Union.

If so, will the last Brit to leave the EU please turn off the lights.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

Gold Forecast: Proper Action

We will enter the weekend flat with no active trades. This of course following a series of trades we accomplished yesterday.

We sent out to special trade alerts initiating long gold positions first at 1268 and then and another long position at 1300.

We have covered both long gold positions @ 1340 for a  +$72  and + $40 profit  for a total of 112.00 or 11,200 on two contracts

 

Gold Market Forecast

We have been effectively looking for gold to return to its bullish rally mode ever since we received technical confirmation early this year that the price point of 1040 would be the low that gold prices would fall to.

Based upon our research our models alluded to gold prices moving into the $1400 range at some point this year. During this year we have recommended a total of approximately 12 trades with the net result of well over 300% returns.

But it is going to get much better than that. If our models continue to offer the type of insight we have seen so far this year, and gold moves into the $1400 range, we could see resulting profits to exceed our best years since 2009 when we began to gold forecast service.

Today's video will detail what we are looking for in terms of gold pricing over the next couple of weeks along with our initial upside targets that we will act upon the first part of next week.

Trending Markets Forecast

If you recall from last week we stated that should the referendum vote in Britain pass, and citizens effectively vote to leave the European Union, we would see a dramatic drop in US equities which would result with a minimum of a 500 point drop immediately following the vote count. Our models were incorrect in that rather than a 500 point drop, the Dow Jones industrial average closed effectively 600 points lower on the day.

This dynamic drop was very predictable if in fact the referendum vote would pass. We also stated that that could present some excellent buying opportunities as the major reaction could well be in overreaction to the immediate effect that this referendum presents. That is not to say that over the next year or two as steps are taken to actually exit the European Union that we will not see dramatic effects on global economies.

However that being said the immediate reaction could easily be a overreaction and present us with exceptional trading opportunities next week