Over the last few days, we have seen market sentiment shift from an overall bullish demeanor in regard to U.S. equities to a bearish outlook. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has now lost over 5% in trading since Wednesday, with a net decline of over 1,300 points in just two days of trading. Following yesterday’s decline of over 800 points in the Dow, today traders continued their liquidation sale and the Dow lost another 545 points.
Dow Closes Below 200-Day Moving Average
For the first time since June of this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed below its 200-day moving average. This is significant in that technical analysis uses the 200-day moving average to determine whether a market is in a long-term bull or bear trend, and the 50-day moving average to determine whether a market is in a short-term bull or bear trend.
Yesterday’s 800-point decline in the Dow took pricing below its 50-day moving average for the first time since July, and today’s continued selling pressure moves the needle below the longer-term 200 day moving average.
Continued selling would confirm that market sentiment had reached an inflection point earlier this week as traders moved from a bullish to bearish demeanor in regard to U.S. equities.
A combination of higher interest rates, which have been initiated by the Federal Reserve as they raised interest rates for the third time this year, as well as genuine concern that the trade dispute between the United States and China has now become a full-blown trade war were cited as the underlying factors causing investors to lose confidence in the stock market.
Trump Tirade – “The Fed Has Gone Crazy”
President Trump made the following statement in response to yesterday’s selloff in the stock market, “I think the Fed is making a mistake. It’s so tight, I think the Fed has gone crazy”. While higher interest rates are definitely part of the underlying causes of the selling pressure over the last two trading days, it is the uncertainty created by the current to trade war between China in the United States that combined has caused market sentiment to reverse so quickly.
Gold Prices Surge as Market Sentiment Begins to Favor Safe Haven Assets
One of the resulting byproducts of the massive liquidation in U.S. equities is a move by investors and traders to the safe haven asset class favoring gold and bonds. Gold futures gained almost 3% in trading today, with the most active December Comex contract currently fixed at $1,227.30, a net gain of $33.90 on the day. While U.S. dollar weakness today provided some tailwinds, the vast majority of today’s gains can be attributed to short covering and traders bidding up the precious yellow metal.
Gold Closes Above Its 50-Day Moving Average
Gold’s massive upside pop to current pricing is not only above the psychological resistance level at $1,200 per ounce but also through the 50-day moving average which is currently at $1,204.20.
The fact that gold broke and closed well above the 50-day moving average gives technical evidence that the bearish demeanor that has been so prevalent in gold pricing might have concluded. It also indicates that the short-term market trend in gold has reversed and is now bullish.
Based on our technical studies, the next real resistance level in gold resides at $1,246.40, with solid support at $1,217 per ounce.
Wishing you as always, good trading,