El Dedo Del Destino - The Underlying Force Behind Changes in Market Sentiment | The Gold Forecast

El Dedo Del Destino - The Underlying Force Behind Changes in Market Sentiment

May 30, 2019 - 8:13pm

 by Gary Wagner

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

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Gold Forecast: Proper Action

This morning we sent out this messageTrade Alert: buy August 2019 gold @ the market

Respectable move today in gold which is currently trading up $6.80 to $7.00, basis the August 2019 contract and fixed at $1293.10.

Place a protective stop below $1273.13 , last weeks low

Our current upside target is to cover the position at $1361. We will discuss is trading detail during today’s video report

Gold Market Forecast

As you know over the last three trading days I have been talking about how my market sentiment in gold had been changing from bearish to bullish. In fact I receive questions by some of my subscribers that have been with me for a while and know my rationale behind a buy or sell trigger. The question was the same with all of my subscribers as they wondered what caused me to simply become bullish when there were no technical indicators which confirm that assumption. I simply try to explain that my change in market sentiment was because of the extremely bullish underlying fundamentals, even though they had not entered into market perception as of that time.
On today's video I will attempt to explain the difference between understanding something and internalizing that information and how that causes you to react differently

Sentiment Indicator:
Gold -> Bullish
Silver -> Neutral
S&P 500 -> Neutral
Bitcoin -> Neutral
Bitcoin fundamentals by Joseph M. Wagner II:

 

Bitcoin’s Brief Bump up

Bitcoin had a brief rally today taking the digital currency above $9000 per unit. Starting at approximately 11:40 PM Eastern daylight Time BTC futures surged from approximately $8800 to a high of $9180 in approximately 30 minutes time, before correcting even faster down to the lows of today which came in at $8585. Following this 45 minute roller coaster ride pricing settled down and continues to trade slightly below its opening price. As of 4:20 PM Eastern daylight Time Bitcoin futures trading on the CME are down by 1.6% at $8615, and the brief spike in volatility seems to have resided.

Although brief, this demand based price influx provides real insight to a previously overlooked area of technical resistance, this level resides at $9185. Many analysts do not see any reason to believe this price point would be a stopping point on BTC’s rise to $10,000. However, after this weekend’s gap up traders and analysts were perplexed by the fact that pricing stalled here, and continued to for the past five trading days. On a technical basis there was no indicators that called for $9185 to be anything more than a stepping stone on the way to $10,000.

On a historical basis there is a little evidence that this level may become a hurdle. The only clues pointing to this are very brief congestion at this area in March, April and May of last year, as well as a top in the market on March 30, 2018 at approximately $9185 on an intraday basis. Although plenty of historical data points to approximately $9500 being a key level of either support or resistance. Below that nothing of any significance until $8000.

$9530 is the .38% Fibonacci retracement using the entire trading range from December 2018 when futures contracts were first offered on the CME. This area is also clearly illustrated as support or resistance in the past. For this reason I believe the area between these two price points being $9185-$9530 as a crucial and significant price point that Bitcoin must overcome if it is to (which I believe it will)  trade to $10,000 and beyond. For that reason we want to look very closely over the next week at how pricing behaves in this area. I am forecasting a likely dip in pricing before an effective close above this crucial area. If this occurs it would not only be a good opportunity for traders to buy on the dip but will also make me feel more comfortable that this market has matured and is moving in a stair step manner like all healthy markets tend to trade in. If this correction were to occur I do not see a dip below the .23% retracement at approximately $7000 likely due to Bitcoin’s resurgence of interest.

 I also believe that since Bitcoin tends to move in a very parabolic manner, it has over the last few years begun to trade in a more stable manner due to the increased futures volume and more trading options on different platforms being developed for large exchanges. This continued acceptance makes that digital currency more accessible to institutional investors, also providing more transparency, liquidity and trading options.