Possible Fed Action and Geopolitical Events Reignite Interest in Gold | The Gold Forecast

Possible Fed Action and Geopolitical Events Reignite Interest in Gold

June 13, 2019 - 6:53pm

 by Gary Wagner

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

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Gold Forecast: Proper Action
Yesterday we sent out a  special trade alert recommending the initiation of a long position in August gold. Traders taking that call went long at $1339.10. We also recommended placing a stop at $1333. Today geopolitical events were highly supportive of gold which closed at $1346 per ounce, roughly 7 dollars above our entry price. On today's video report we will discuss in detail the rationale behind entering the trade along with are exit strategy should the trade move higher and the rationale behind where we put our protective stop.
Gold Market Forecast
We remain bullish for gold on a long-term basis, however On Sunday we saw the market open two dollars lower and begin to selloff. When gold prices had declined by eight dollars we took our protective stop which was sitting at $1328 and took it to the market so that we could exit the trade at $1338 per ounce adding an additional $10 profit to the trade which resulted in a 45% gain
All week we have spoken about the proper point to reenter from the long side as you know it was my belief that the retracement we would witness would be shallow and brief and that is exactly what we saw when geopolitical events today rekindled safe haven allure of gold and moved it nine dollars higher on the day. My senses that we have now entered a new leg of the rally and my current target will be fully explained on today's video report.
Support for gold continues to be  attributed to statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell who alluded to the potential for rate reductions this year to continue the economic expansion. This coupled with last  Monday's statement by the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, James Bullard is significant in that it illustrates real support for rate cuts if needed. Last weeks Labor department Jobs report came in well under exceptions. 175,000 new jobs were forecast and the actual number was only 75,000, are supportive of rate cuts.
Sentiment Indicator:
Gold -> Bullish
Silver -> Bullish
S&P 500 -> Neutral
Bitcoin -> Bullish
Bitcoin fundamentals by Joseph M. Wagner II:

For the second day in a row BTC futures are poised to close well above the $8000 price point, more importantly futures on the CME seemed destined to close above $8200, which was previously an area of strong technical resistance. At the time of writing this article BTC #F is bid at $8295 up $100 on the day or 1.2%. This area has historically been a key level of support, resistance and consolidation. Looking at a two day candlestick chart one can identify a pattern known as tweezer bottoms and the current 48-hour candle providing confirmation to this bullish reversal pattern. Also the 20 day volume weighted moving average that BTC futures had been trading at or above for the entirety of the recent rally (that brought pricing from $3300 to the intraday yearly high at approximately $9200) up until last Tuesday, June 4 when the technical indicator crossed above the closing price until the most recent 48-hour candle.

Although daily volume is down from a peak of over 31,000 contracts being bought or sold on May 13, today coming in just below 4000 which is similar to volume during the first five months of the CME’s BTC futures contract being offered, looking at the open interest we are still very close to the all-time high of open contracts in this market. More technical analysis shows how this key reversal pattern holds weight is the 100 and 200 day moving average golden cross we spoke about occurring today as well as the relative momentum index at an all-time high of 67.

We spoke about the fundamental reasons for my belief as to why Bitcoin’s price will continue higher throughout this month and I believe in the coming weeks Bitcoin will not only make a new high for the year but also reach the coveted $10,000 mark.