Conflicting Forces 5/06/2013
Compared to last week, the start of the current week is short on fundamental news that might move the precious markets.
One could look at the Israeli airstrike on Syrian weapons and military research facilities and say that there is cause to think of gold as a safe haven. Most observers, however, think it would be suicidal for the Syrian regime to blunder into a war with Israel while in the midst of a bloody, intractable civil war. The civil war there is not some simple uprising that could lose support if Assad and company are threatened by an external enemy. Additionally, no other Middle East nation comes close to Israel's military prowess. Syria will have to take its surgical whipping even while engaging in political histrionics.
There is some chatter that China will execute some sort of stimulus program to start the wheels of its economy turning again. We think there is some chance, but we think that the ultra-conservatives there will be late to the party and if past behavior is any indication, they will promise big things and then slowly scale back those promises. China wants to go to the prom but doesn't want to pay for the corsage.
On another front, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data collated on May 3rd, money managers increased their net-long position in New York gold by 19percent to 54,762 futures and options as of April 30. This bodes particularly well for the metal.
But, we have to look for a slowing down of ETF divestment of gold bullion in order for prices to push beyond $1500 and throw us into a true bull trend. Physical buying can only take us so far, especially as prices creep up slowly but surely and turns off the proverbial "Asian housewife" buyer.
Gold prices today hovered between small losses and small gains and, as late afternoon trading nears an end, it looks like prices could punch through into positive territory. Most of the drag on prices today has come from a strengthening dollar.
Silver is showing a little weakness today, some due to dollar strength, but also on news that the number of near-term futures long contracts shrank last week. As of this writing, silver is down about 0.35%.
As always, wishing you good trading,
Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Market Forecast: After trading to higher prices when gold trading opened in Australia, prices were on able to hold in positive territory. Best characterized by its low volume in New York which limited any continued upside move Even with the comments which were recently made by the ECB president, Mario Draghi, gold was unable to hold the positive territory it had overnight. On a technical basis we still continue to look for gold prices to close above 1470. Although we hit a intraday high of 1485, it is the closing basis of 1470 which is needed to give us technical evidence that we are in fact in an impulse phase. Until such time as we reach that price point we cannot be absolutely certain that this long correction is over. We recommend that we maintain our current long positions as well as our current stop placement.
Maintain long gold @ 1452 stop below 1430 &
Maintain long silver @ 23.60 stop below 23.10
From the week of 05.03.2013
COT LINK See previous weeks in Historical Commitments of Traders Reports.
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