A Pause In Our Program | The Gold Forecast

A Pause In Our Program

June 6, 2014 - 6:05pm

 by Gary Wagner

Before we start, a word about D-Day, June 6, 1944.

The western allies who landed on the beaches of Normandy helped to save the world from the worst modern menace it has known. Let's remember their courage and sacrifices and remind ourselves we live in a world of their making and not in some Nazi nightmare.

*        *        *

In afternoon trading Friday, gold is down about 70 cents, leaving it up a half percent for the week.

Once again, the culprits for keeping gold subdued were a rising dollar, which all but counterbalanced the up small move in regular trading, and the steamroller stock markets.

The equities took great heart in U.S. employment data, which exceeded expectations. 217,000 jobs were created in May, a rate that would deliver an increase of 2.6 million jobs over the course of the year. One of the more interesting sides of the report said that at last college grads are in much higher demand.

The downside is that, except for college graduate-type positions, low-pay-scale employment is all that is out there.

While the stock market continues its ascent, we are left to ponder this fact. The number - the percentage - of people owning stocks is at an all-time low. This is worrisome for the economy but in the long run may be good for gold.

Panic sell-offs occur more easily when small numbers of humans are involved. (Think of five teenagers stuck in a haunted house versus 55.) If the market begins to go south, it doesn't take many decision makers to turn a drip into a flood. Conversely, when large numbers of people are making decisions, things tend to move almost glacially.

The rise of the dollar is curious insofar as it primarily reflects currency weakness around the world.

One volatility factor to keep our eyes on next week is how talks go between longshore workers and the powers that be in the port of Los Angeles. The longer it goes on, the better it is for gold. And, if you're holding export-related equities from Asia, or western South America, keep an eye on them.

Now, this does not mean there would be a lasting effect on gold. Indeed, a hard strike might only serve to boost U.S. manufacturers and encourage more onshoring. But, it could hurt American companies who rely on China and Korea for assembling products.

The international economy has many, many moving parts.

As always, wishing you good trading,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

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