Bitcoin | The Gold Forecast

Bitcoin futures trade up but off of the 50-day M.A.

Monday, September 28, 2020 - 17:48 by Joseph M. Wagner II

Today we saw Bitcoin futures (BTC) post their 3rd consecutive gain for the day, currently up $150 or 1.39% as of 4:30 PM EST. Usually, this would be signaling a further bullish trajectory, and although this could be the case here’s why I don’t believe it is as of yet.

First and foremost is the intra-day high achieved today at $11,080. This price point is exactly where the 50-day moving average lies. A bounce to the downside was observed after reaching this technical indicator and for that reason, we remain neutral. However, a break above $11,200 would turn us bullish on the asset.

One of the more bullish signs we have witnessed today and for the past three trading sessions is the growing volume occurring concurrently with higher pricing. Gleaming any meaning out of this can be tricky and we don’t have to look back too far to see one of the only other instances of growing volume for three days of price advances. The last time and possibly the only other time we had three days of rising volume amidst three days of the rising price is back on May 8th of this year. What followed the next day for BTC however was a steep decline over the weekend leading to BTC futures gapping down over $1,200 on the open for Monday, May 12th.

So, our forecast from Friday remains and it “Is likely that it will remain in its current band of approximately $9,900 - $11,100 for the foreseeable future. Looking back on a longer-term chart reveals this is indeed BTC’s favorite point of congestion and what is only starting to resemble consolidation.”

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Previous Reports:

Friday, September 25, 2020 - 19:01
Bitcoin futures have been as high as the 50-day moving average and as low as the 100-day moving average. They have dropped from the top of this $900 range and are back towards the high point of the range after bouncing off the bottom at the 100-day M.A. Currently, as of 4:30 PM EST BTC futures most active contract is up just over 1% ($115) at $10,840. Similar to gold and silver which... Read more
Tuesday, September 22, 2020 - 20:38
With BTC futures no longer bullish on a short-term technical basis (trading below its 50-day moving average) Bitcoin futures are alluding to further erosion. There is a good chance this decline will take pricing below its recent support at the 100-day moving average and test the critical support area of approximately $9,200. What makes $9,200 a key and critical level that must be held for BTC... Read more
Monday, September 21, 2020 - 18:48
Today’s sell-off across most major asset classes included Bitcoin as BTC fell to $10,265 at the lows. Since then BTC futures have recovered and currently as of 5 PM EST are trading at $10,505 down $375 (-3.45%) for the session. From a technical standpoint BTC futures did close below the 23% Fibonacci retracement level. It was the moving averages however that seemed to dictate the price range... Read more