Bitcoin | Page 32 | The Gold Forecast

Traders buy the dip propping BTC to new ATH

Tuesday, December 1, 2020 - 01:44 by Joseph M. Wagner II

It would seem that traders in the spot and futures markets wouldn’t let this rally die out before reaching a new record high in Bitcoin. During the Thanksgiving holiday, Bitcoin sold off on the spot exchanges while futures traders could do nothing until the following day when the markets re-opened. They followed suit on Friday closing over $2,000 lower while the spot markets closed relatively unchanged from the lows already hit on Thursday. Then spot Bitcoin (Bitstamp on our first chart) made one of the strongest three days recoveries culminating with a new all-time high on Monday in both spot and futures.

After hitting that coveted area and final resistance level of $20,000 guess what happened? BTC found resistance! I know it is anti-climactic to say that Bitcoin won’t hit $30,000 by the end of the year but I don’t think it is going to happen, and that’s okay. For me and a lot of other traders what will truly make this rally a special one to be remembered forever is if Bitcoin can hold onto this price point. Over the weekend we got a taste of the volatility that used to be so prevalent in this market and what we had gone without for some time leading up to this parabolic launch from $12,500 up to $20,000.

Last week’s CFTC report shows that while institutions and large hedge funds are long three to one, non-commercial positions being the majority were more bearish with 10,737 shorts to 8,285 longs. Unreportable or small individual traders are overwhelmingly bullish, but total short positions still outnumber long ones.

To me what would be the most bullish thing for BTC to do now is not further gains but consolidation. On our second chart, we show volume in a few different metrics. On this sixty-minute candlestick chart of Monday’s CME Bitcoin futures continuous contract, you can see below in green and red hourly bars representing the volume for each hourly candle above. Volume did spike during the hours where prices rose the most. Contrary to that if you look at the horizontal bars on the chart itself the length of the blue lines tells us that buyers were most eagerly buying at points of consolidation. This shows hesitation amongst traders as the price goes into never before seen territory. This is another reason why Bitcoin may stay around this price zone for awhile with the rest of the year likely to see sideways to downward action if these clues are correct.



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Previous Reports:

Monday, April 6, 2020 - 18:44
Bitcoin is reacting to markets rallying today. Some of which like the U.S. indices are surprisingly all trading up over 6% at the close, I say surprisingly because I believe it is unwarranted. Experts say that the equities are responding positively to news that Europe may have passed its apex of new Covid-19 cases meaning that the new cases by day should start to decline. In the U.S. the apex is... Read more
Friday, April 3, 2020 - 17:39
  Bitcoin showed signs that it is no longer trapped inside a narrow range and has made its exit from sideways trading. Next week will likely take it to higher pricing. When it broke out of its price range of $5,700 to $6,700 yesterday when BTC futures had their first close above $6,700 since March 12th. The high on March 12th was just at $8,000 which is also were I believe BTC is headed... Read more
Thursday, April 2, 2020 - 16:58
Bitcoin had quite a jump today with CME futures up over 10% at $6,870 as of 3 PM EST. Last night we had a jump in pricing that took Bitcoin futures up to $7,345. This recent action is very bullish and suggests that it BTC left its recent trading range and sideways activity and will soon likely retest resistance at just below $8,000 ($7,970) in the coming weeks. The resistance we see coming in... Read more