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Will gold prices hold above the 100-day moving average? – Part two

September 28, 2020 - 5:41pm by Gary Wagner

On Friday, September 25 we spoke about the fact that gold had plunged below its 50-day moving average one week prior. Last Thursday and Friday the intraday lows took gold pricing just above the 100-day moving average. The fact that gold prices managed to hold above this key level indicates that on a technical basis there is real support for gold at approximately $1850 per ounce.

Now for a third consecutive trading day, gold prices traded to, but not below this key indicator of intermediate market sentiment. Today’s action in both U.S. equities and gold pricing is a polar opposite of what traders observed a week ago Monday (September 21) when gold futures opened at $1957 and closed at $1910.

As of 4:40 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active December contract is currently fixed at $1886.20, after factoring in today’s gain of $19.90 (+ 1.07%). However, it is the intraday low that warrants our attention. Currently, the 100-day moving average is fixed at $1850.40, and today gold traded to a low of $1851.10 less than one dollar above that average.

Dollar weakness today provided tailwinds contributing a little under one-third of today’s advance in gold futures and spot pricing. According to the KGX (Kitco gold index), spot gold is currently fixed at $1881.10, which is a net gain of $19.90. On closer inspection dollar weakness resulted in a gain of $5.60 per ounce, and a strong buying bias resulted in a net gain of $14.30 on the day.

It is important to acknowledge two upcoming events in the United States that could have an enormous impact on gold prices this week. The first is the presidential debate which will be held tomorrow and secondly is the U.S Labor Department’s jobs report which will be released on Friday. Concurrently there are increased tensions between the United States and China, as well as a stalemate with no deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union in regards to Brexit.

These factors and events could be highly supportive of gold pricing. There is absolute uncertainty as to the outcome of tomorrow’s presidential debates. Uncertainty continues to be the fuel that could reignite gold pricing this week, and as such could take the precious yellow metal’s pricing higher.

Wishing you as always good trading and good health,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

Previous Reports:

Archived: September 9, 2020 - 6:44pm, Daily Report: September 9, 2020 - 6:44pm

U.S. equities staged a 180° turn around in trading today. All three major indices sustained major drawdowns yesterday, with the NASDAQ composite moving into corrective territory. Today the tech heavy NASDAQ composite gained 2.71%, and after factoring in today’s gains of a little over 293 points closed at 11,141.5642. To that end, today’s reversal in U.S. equities were impressive. Tesla which had lost 30%... View report

Chart This: September 9, 2020 - 11:35am

Equities markets have seen some strong selling activity in the last week due to lingering uncertainties in the economy, said Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com, who is concerned about gold and silver potentially not holding their base at current levels.  “We are seeing a recovery, but the recovery is much slower than anticipated,” Wagner told Kitco News in an interview Tuesday. “I think... View report

Archived: September 8, 2020 - 6:27pm, Daily Report: September 8, 2020 - 6:27pm

Considering today’s extremely strong U.S. dollar, coupled with a major decline in U.S. equities, the fact that both gold and silver are trading higher on the day is extremely impressive. Currently the dollar is up just over 0.75%, which is a net gain of 70 points, taking the dollar index to 93.425. As of 3:48 PM EST gold futures basis the most active December contract is trading $6.70 higher, a net gain... View report