It is Likely That the Trade War Negotiations Will Get Worse Before They get Better

May 14, 2019 - 6:33pm

 by Gary Wagner

Last week’s trade negotiations between the delegation from China and the U.S. delegation seemed to have lost ground and moved farther away from a resolution, the opposite of the desired outcome. It is interesting that concessions agreed to by China were taken off the table. The explanation or motive behind that move could be the belief that China is content to walk away from the trade talks. This move by China prompted a strong response by the United States as Trump raised the current tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from 10% to 25%. The fact that this action occurred in the middle of the two-day negotiation definitely added to the current tension and certainly prolonged a resolution rather than bringing the two superpowers closer to an end of this economic conflict.

The first indication of that occurred when the Chinese delegation left the negotiating table promptly after lunch on Friday. The trade talks were scheduled to end at the end of Friday rather than midday. Once Trump announced the intent to raise tariffs to a higher percentage the immediate response by China was threatened retaliation for this move. That retaliation was announced on Monday with a date of implementation set at June 1st. China stated their intent to put tariffs on an additional $60 billion worth of U.S. imports to China.

The fact that it was the Chinese that first announced a change in their stated concessions, which then prompted the administration to escalate the tension by raising the tariffs by 15% has lessened the likely hood of resolution.

As reported by MarketWatch, “Until a week ago, it looked likely that a far-reaching trade deal would be struck between the U.S. and China within a matter of weeks. But negotiations hit a severe impasse, as the U.S. side accused the Chinese side of having reneged on key concessions,” said Stephen Gallagher, U.S. chief economist at Societe Generale, in a note to clients.”

After yesterday’s dynamic selloff in U.S. equities, and respectable gains in gold, today’s reverse bounce was to be expected. Because of the lack of any real headway resulting in last week’s negotiations, as well as the belief that both China and United States are further away from resolving the issues, we could easily see a prolonged rally in gold as well as U.S. equities trading to lower pricing.

Wishing you, as always, good trading,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

Bitcoin Resilient and Maintains Price Just Below $8000 - By Joseph M. Wagner

Today Bitcoin pricing has held, holding onto $8000 per coin. Bitcoin’s parabolic rise has not shown any sizable retracement after gaining 25% yesterday. Bitcoin has been benefiting from the flight from cash, especially from the Chinese Yuan. This has been a major factor to the most recent surge in pricing.

Volume in bitcoin futures (BTC #F) has also had an incredible increase. Considering that April volume was oscillating between 500 and 5000 contracts, this was dwarfed by today’s volume of 31433 contracts traded. The volume is an all-time record high since the future contract began trading in December 2018. One last thought on volume is that prior to this recent spike, new trades were the result of additional  long positions and  for the first time in about a year long potions exceeded short positions.

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Gold Forecast: Proper Action
On Sunday, May 5th, we sent out a trade alert to enter a long trade in June gold. We entered this position at $1285 with a stop at $1268. Today we sent out a trade alert to modify the stop to $1291.13
Maintain long gold at $1285. Maintain NEW stop at $1291.13, and put a limit order or (if available) an OCO (one cancels the other) to sell at $1310
An OCO order combines a stop order with a limit order on an automated trading platform. When either the stop or limit price is reached and the order executed, the other order automatically gets canceled. Experienced traders use OCO orders to mitigate risk and to enter the market.
A limit order is an order to buy or sell a stock at a specific price or better. A buy limit order can only be executed at the limit price or lower, and a sell limit order can only be executed at the limit price or higher. A limit order is not guaranteed to execute.
Gold Market Forecast

The trade negotiations which which ended on Friday will certainly lead to more obstacles than previous trade talks. Higher tariffs: 10% to 25%, and the Chinese response, changes the dynamics and has raised the stakes to a new level: Trade War 2.0.

Sentiment Indicator:
Gold -> Bullish
Silver -> Neutral
S&P 500 -> Bearish
Bitcoin -> Bullish