Powell’s Sets the Tone for up Upcoming FOMC Meeting | The Gold Forecast

Powell’s Sets the Tone for up Upcoming FOMC Meeting

July 11, 2019 - 5:52pm

 by Gary Wagner

In a two-day testimony to Congress Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell seemed to say all the right things as he underlined the revised monetary policy by the Fed which is much more accommodating than prior months. He has also continued to confirm rate cuts are almost a certainty on July 31. The question remains not whether or not the Fed will reduce interest rates, but by how much.

With the clock ticking and 19 days, 22 hours, one minute and 17 seconds remaining until the next FOMC meeting, the CME’s FedWatch tool is indicating that there is a 100% probability that there will be a rate cut. What is noteworthy is that there is a 79.6% probability that there will be a .50% interest rate cut, and a 20.4% probability that the rate cut will only be ¼%. It is this uncertainty an unknown that is causing a moderate selloff in gold.

As of 4 PM EDT gold futures basis the most active August contract is down ¼%, and fixed at $1408.90, which is of decline of $3.60. Although there is fractional headwinds from a slightly lower dollar, the majority of today’s decline can be defined as a result of selling pressure. Gold futures have tested a new high for 2019 just above $1420 on two occasions over the last two weeks. It is an absolute indication that there is some substantial resistance at that price point. Clearly traders are witnessing a round of profit-taking.

There is also much greater selling pressure and spot gold today which is currently trading $11.70 lower and fixed at $1406.70. A weakening US dollar is only adding $0.60 worth of value as market participants bid the precious yellow metal lower to the tune of $12.30.

Our technical studies indicate that there is strong support at $1400 per ounce in both physical and gold futures. Whereas spot gold hit a low of $1403.71, gold futures traded to a low today of $1405.40.

As one analyst described today’s price action it seems traders have bought the rumor, and are now selling the fact. Nonetheless the tone and statements from Federal Reserve members continue to show the resolve in taking the necessary steps to infuse the current economic expansion with the energy continue.

It is for that reason that our current belief is that we are currently in a corrective phase which is slowly morphing into a compression triangle based upon the fact that the last two highs have been lower highs than the previous highs, and the last two lows have been higher than the previous close. Although in a compression triangle break and release of energy can result in a move in either direction, typically the break will move in the direction of the prevalent trend. If that is the case here we can look for this correction to and with a strong rally to the upside.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

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Gold Forecast: Proper Action

We sent out a TRADE ALERT upon the open of New York Friday, July 5th.  This after gold sold off to the tune of 30.00.
 Yesterday we sent out a trade alert to move stop to $1411.13
 
STOP was Hit today in New York
 Long August Gold @ $1391.30  
Out @ $1411.13 for a
profit of  $1983.00 per contract.
 
WE ARE CURRENTLY FLAT with no active trades
 
 

Closed trades:

GLD: On April 12th our stop was hit at $162. We went long at 162.82. Trade resulted in 0.82 loss per share.

Futures: Gold (GC J21) in at 1722.80. Out at at $1728 for a profit of $520.00- per Comex contract.
Forex: XAUUSD in at 1724.40. Out at at $1729 for a profit of $4.60- per ounce.
ETF's: GLD in at 161.55. Out at at $161.90 for a profit of $0.35- per share

SLV in at $24.24. Stop hit at $23.50, for a loss of $1.05 per share
May 2021 (SI K21) in at $26.26. Stop hit at $25.3 for a loss of $0.96 ounce
Forex silver in at $26.17. Stop hit at $25,30 or a loss of $0.87 per ounce

On February 18 we entered a long April Platinum trade. In at $1282. Our stop was hit today (02/26/21) @ at $1217.00
SILVER FUTURES MARCH: Entry at $27.36, and then closed the trade later @ $27.45.
XAGUSD: Entry at $27.26,, our stop was hit at $27.39

We closed our positions in SLV:
First leg SLV: @ 22.95 .out at @ $24.99
Second leg SLV @ 24.60. out at @ $24.99

On Thursday February 4 stops were hit on our long GLD ETF. We entered at 172.14. Our stop was hit at $168.29 (the open on Thursday) for a $3.85 loss per share.

GOLD FUTURES APRIL: Entry at 1845 - 1859 . Stop hit at 1813 - average loss $3900 per contract
XAUSUD: Entry at 1845 - 1857 . Stop hit at 1813 - average loss of $38 per oz
SILVER FUTURES MARCH: Entry at 25.42 - 25.46 . Stop hit at 24.11 - average loss $6650 per contract
XAGUSD: Entry at 25.33 - 25.40 - Stop hit at 24.11 - average loss $1.3 per oz
long February gold @ $1890.00 and stop hit @ $1902.20, for a profit of $1202.00 per contract
long Forex gold @ $1886.00 and stop hit @ $1898 for a profit of $12.00 per OZ
long March silver @ $26.31 and stop hit @ $26.41 for a profit of $500.00 per contract
long GLD @ $177.26 and stop hit @ $178.00 for a profit of $0.71 per share
long SLV @ $24.67 and stop hit @ 25.00 for a profit of $0.33 per share
long February Gold Futures at $1860-$1866 and stop hit at at $1869. Average profit $600 per contract
long XAUUSD at $1856-$1862 and stop hit at $1866. Average profit $6
long March Silver Futures at $25.16 - $25.25 and stop hit at $25.30. Average profit $450 per contract
long GLD @ $174.12 and stop hit at $175.78 for a profit of $1.66 per share
long GLD @ $174.12 and stop hit at $175.78 for a profit of $1.66 per share
long February Gold Futures at $1830 -$1843 and out at $1850 for a profit of $700 to $2000.00 per contract
long XAUUSD at $1841 and out at $1850 for a profit of $90.00 per mini 10 oz contract
long March Silver Futures at $24.29 and out @ $24.40 for a profit of $550.00 per comex contract
long GLD @ 1$71.50 and out @ $173.00 for a profit of $1.50 per share
long SLV @ $22.30 and out @ $22.50 for a profit of $0.20 per share
Long December gold at $1899. Stop hit at $1918, for a $1900 profit
Long forex gold at $1896.00. Stop hit at $1912, for a $1600 profit
Long December silver at $24.21. Stop hit at $25.07 for a $4300 profit
Long GLD at $180.46 and stop hit at $176.42 for a loss of $4.04 per share
Long SLV at $23.23 and stop at $22.78 for a loss of $0.40 per share
Long December Gold Futures at $1926 and stop hit at $1907.30 for a loss of $18.70 per ounce
Long Forex Gold at $1922 and stop hit at $1903 for a loss of $19.00 per ounce
Long December Silver Futures at $25.13 and stop hit at $24.73 for a loss of $0.40 per ounce
Long December gold at $1890, out at $1909.30 for a profit of $1,930.00
Long December silver at $23.95, out at $24.50 for a profit of $2,750.00
Long Forex gold at $1883.68, out $1907 for a profit of $23.32 per ounce
Long GLD ETF at $178.03, out at $179.80 for a profit of $1.77 per share
Long SLV ETF at $22.66, out at $22.03 for a loss of $0.63 per share

Gold Market Forecast

it is all about the two day's of testimony to Congress by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.Todays show will wxplain why we moves the stop up , and what we plan on doing next.

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