The Trade War is Not a Game, it is Not Deal or No Deal | The Gold Forecast

The Trade War is Not a Game, it is Not Deal or No Deal

August 9, 2019 - 5:56pm

 by Gary Wagner

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

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Gold Forecast: Proper Action
On Monday, August 5th, we sent out this email: Trade Alert: Buy December Gold at The Market. Small dip in gold prices have taken futures off of the high today of 1481.
Buy gold AT THE MARKET current is $1474.40. Stop @ 1410.13
On Wednesday August 7th we sent out a trade alert to raise our stop from $1440.13 to $ 1496.13
 
Maintain long gold at 1474.40 and stop at $1496.13
Gold Market Forecast
Since the correction ended at the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016, the immediate rally which followed it traded to a high of $1370 per ounce which created an unbreakable ceiling for the three years that followed that move. Although gold traded with a consistent series of higher lows each attempt to break $1370 was unsuccessful up until a couple of months ago. It would not be till June of this year that for the first time following the end of the multiyear correction gold not only broke above $1370 but also above $1400 per ounce.
 
However, it is this month that is most significant in that this week gold finally breached $1500 per ounce. This current rally has resulted in substantial gains and could continue or end at any point.
 
On today’s report we will set various parameters and discuss our current model which uses Elliott wave and Fibonacci extension to forecast where we could see gold pricing go to durring this leg of the rally
Sentiment Indicator:
Gold -> Bullish
Silver -> Bullish
S&P 500 -> Neutral
Bitcoin -> Bullish
Bitcoin fundamentals by Joseph M. Wagner II:

Bitcoin futures have traded within a narrowing range since Monday and is in fact displaying a compression triangle for this week’s action. BTC #F experienced a 12% increase on Monday opening at $11,000 in closing just below $12,000. More so other than containing a higher intraday range on Tuesday has had consecutive lower highs and higher lows for the rest of the week as of 3:30 PM Eastern daylight Time. Currently at the time of this being written BTC futures are trading at $12,000 even up $310 on the day or 2.65%.

The technical formation known as a compression triangle will usually results in a break to either the upside or the downside at its apex. Usually the breakout will follow its most prevalent trend direction prior to the formation of the triangle, which in this case would be to the upside. We also would be reaching the apex of this formation within the next day or two so a price break likely to the upside should be expected. If this rally and BTC futures that is currently in a consolidation period achieves a .618 extension of the previous rally then we could be looking at pricing heading to $13,682. A one-to-one relationship would take the futures market to $16,237. With fundamental aspects providing tailwinds for this digital asset class I believe that a one-to-one extension is not out of the question over the next week or two.

If however it breaks to the downside I would look for support at the 38% retracement level residing at $11,024 and below that the 23% at $10,261. Trading this weekend as well as on Monday morning will most likely provide us with the price direction over the next week.