Trade War Truce Creates Solid Risk-On Market Sentiment and Selling Pressure for Gold | The Gold Forecast

Trade War Truce Creates Solid Risk-On Market Sentiment and Selling Pressure for Gold

July 1, 2019 - 6:31pm

 by Gary Wagner

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

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Gold Forecast: Proper Action
After taking profits on Tuesday June 25, we are currently flat with no active trades in gold or silver.
 
On Tuesday June 25, we sent out a special trade alert recommending that our subscribers take their current protective stop to the market to take profits on our current trade. We entered a long position at $1339, we sold or covered that long trade last week at $1410 for a profit of $7100 per contract. This is roughly a 70% return on this trade.
Gold Market Forecast

After pulling profits last week when gold traded to $1410, we have maintained a neutral stance with no active trades in gold or silver. This stance was highly contingent upon the outcome of last week’s G-20 meeting. As the gold market reopened on Monday morning in Australia, traders immediately saw the response to the truce between the United States and China as favorable to risk on market assets and extremely bearish towards the safe haven asset class, specifically gold. As such on-today’s report, we will detail the key price points that we are looking at as entry levels for our next trade. The key levels can be seen in the chart gallery and the video report.

Sentiment Indicator:
Gold -> Neutral
Silver -> Bearish
S&P 500 -> Bullish
Bitcoin -> Bearish
Bitcoin fundamentals by Joseph M. Wagner II:

Today the carnage continues in the cryptocurrency with Bitcoin trading down around 9% in the various cash market exchanges. With the futures being closed for the last two days it had to play catch up, or catch down with the losses that were achieved during this weekend and opened today at $11,505 in the CME futures contract, gapping down by approximately $1000 from Friday’s close and only trading lower from there and as of 5:00 PM EDT is fixed at $10,565, a 16% decrease from Friday’s close.

Essentially today’s price action in the CME closed the gap that formed on a daily candlestick chart during the weekend from its close on June 21st to June 24th when the market re-opened. Today’s intra-day lows came within $100 of the intra-day high on Friday June 21st. This could be signaling that more of the gaps that were created between Friday closing prices and the opening price the following Monday on the CME.

The two levels most likely to hold as support which happen to two of the remaining three weekend gaps to be filled. The first level of support comes in around $8,500. The other level of support comes in between $6,300 and $6,800 and traders should look at this level very closely as we believe there is not only a real possibility a correction taking it to this level.

This could make a great entry point for traders that may have missed earlier opportunities to get any Bitcoin at this price or for traders that already hold Bitcoin at any price to add to their positions. This level around $6,500 also represents the .78% retracement of this multi-month bull-run and therefore cannot dip below if it is to remain in a bullish trend. We still are looking ahead and forecasting higher pricing based mostly on the fundamentals but also on a technical level BTC has been overdue for a real correction and that makes a shallow correction less likely on a technical basis.