The U.S. Dollar Index Closes Above 98

May 29, 2019 - 6:35pm

 by Gary Wagner

For the first time since May, 2018 the dollar index has traded and closed above 98. However, during the last occurrence, the U.S. dollar had been in a free fall which began in December 2016, when the index peaked at 103.72, and 98.00 was just another brick in the wall of U.S. treasury supremacy. This major correction would result in the dollar losing over 15.5% of its value. By the time this correction concluded the index lost over 1500 points and bottomed at 88.10.

What is significant about this correction is what occurred after, a strong rally that in fact continues to this day. Beginning in January 2018 the dollar index began a slow and methodical move to higher pricing.

From the lows achieved in January 2018 to current value, the dollar index has gained 10%, and has gained back approximately .618% of the value lost during that steep correction. In fact for the last year price action above 97.70 has been met with substantial resistance, defining a major level of resistance at this price point.

As far as gold pricing is concerned, because it is paired with the U.S. dollar a strengthening dollar has a reciprocal and equally negative effect on gold pricing. That is to say that any gains experienced in gold beginning in January 2018 were done so with extreme headwinds from a strong US dollar.

On April of this year the dollar briefly traded above 97.70, closing above resistance and has been trading in this price range for well over a week. Needless to say, like the proverbial salmon swimming upstream gold pricing has been held back because of dollar strength.

Today is no different in that the dollar index is currently up by 0.22%, and gold futures are currently trading .20% higher on the day. This clearly illustrates that the fractional gains seen in gold today were actually twice as much, gaining .42% before factoring in dollar strength.

This can also be seen in spot gold which managed to scrape out a fractional gain on the day of $0.80. On closer inspection normal trading bid up the precious metal by $3.35. However, after subtracting $2.55 (the direct result of a higher dollar) the net change on spot gold was fractional at best, this according to the KGX (Kitco gold Index).

Global equity market jitters resulted in lower pricing around the world. As market participants rekindled their concerns that there has been Appearing more and more grim and uncertain every day. As long as the trade war influences market sentiment, we could see both the U.S. dollar and gold pricing moving in tandem to higher prices.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer

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Gold Forecast: Proper Action

We are currently flat with no active trades. That being said the current fundamentals behind the trade war seem to be getting farther away from a resolution than closer.

As such is not a matter of if, but when this dispute escalates into the economic fabric of both the United States and China.

On today's video report we will continue to detail the parameters we are looking for to enter the market for him the long side. We also will touch upon what would negate that call and Turner market sentiment bearish.

Gold Market Forecast

Although yesterday was a day of truly mixed messages wqith US equities trading higher on the open, and going south 1 hour before the close.

Todaay market participants continued to acknowledge the potential for recent actions by the administration as well as China's rhetoric has createing a deeper chasm and a wider bridge to cross.

Sentiment Indicator:
Gold -> Neutral
Silver -> Neutral
S&P 500 -> Bearish
Bitcoin -> Neutral
Bitcoin fundamentals by Joseph M. Wagner II:

Will BTC Prices pullback?

On a short-term basis this week’s action in this CME’s five Bitcoin contract (BTC # F) is looking as though it is headed for an immediate market correction. I am basing this assumption solely on technical indicators. If you remember I labeled this weekend’s gap as a possible exhaustion gap. Add to that the fact that Tuesday’s candle instead of having a large body, was composed of an extremely small bodied doji.

Dojis often are candles that can signal a pivot, and show a point in time were neither bears nor bulls gain control. Today’s candle confirms that this may be the start of a correction or reversal based on the fact it is the second doji after an 8% gain in value over the extended weekend. However today’s doji type is part of a candlestick pattern known as ‘the hanging man’ today’s candle completes the criteria for a hangman.

A Hangman can be identified with the following conditions; First it must occur after a stock or commodity has been in an uptrend. Second, the candle contains a small real body (distance between open and close) and a long lower wick (at least 3x the size of the body). There should be little to no upper wick.

According to Investopedia, “…when a hanging man forms in an uptrend, it indicates that buyers have lost their strength. While demand has been pushing the stock price higher, on this day, there was significant selling. While buyers managed to bring the price back to near the open, the initial sell-off is an indication that a growing number of investors think the price has peaked. For believers in candlestick trading, the pattern provides an opportunity to sell existing long positions or even go short in anticipation of a price decline.”

As of 5:40 PM 5:40 PM Eastern daylight Time Bitcoin futures on the CME are trading down less than a percent at $8710. I believe that over the next three days we will see a slight to moderate retracement. If this were to occur I feel as though its current support at approximately $8500 will be easily taken out and I would expected to see BTC futures move to $7391 the .50% retracement or as far as $6361 to .38% Fibonacci retracement level.

Will either get confirmation of the hanging man pattern tomorrow, and see a swift yet likely brief selloff. Or tomorrow will bring no confirmation whatsoever in which case I would assume that current support at $8500 will continue to hold and to gain in value.