Video-August-19-2013-Archives-Daily-Show | The Gold Forecast

Video-August-19-2013-Archives-Daily-Show

August 20, 2013 - 4:51pm

 by Gary Wagner


 

No Surprises                   
 
To no one's surprise, profit-takers and the ultra-cautious sold out positions in gold today after it went above recent highs overnight. Silver was off but did not pull back as much as gold, silver being a bit insulated because demand for it as a true industrial commodity remains brisk as well as other fundamental reasons discussed below.
 
"Considering we've gone up so fast so far, it's not surprising to see some people take money off the table," said Dave Meger, director of metals trading with Vision Financial Markets, discussing the gold situation. 
 
Adding to today's wobble in gold is anticipation of the scheduled release Wednesday of the minutes of July's FOMC meeting, which will be read by analysts with all the scrutiny of a chronic gambler at a horse race reading a tout sheet.
 
A good question is this: why take a month to release those minutes? Seems counter-productive. A better solution would be to issue an off-month thumbnail sketch of what's going on in the markets. But... if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. 

"People will be looking for the type of language the FOMC comes out with in terms of tapering the QE," said Bob Haberkorn, a senior commodities broker with RJO Futures. 
 
We think this is an off key worry because by now everyone knows tapering will occur and the consensus is that it will be very gradual so the shock won't be too hard on the body economic. 
 
Sentiment has turned positive toward gold, an annual condition that occurs in late August and early September like the swallows returning to San Juan Capistrano. Usually the good ride up lasts into early winter. Part of the reason is that this part of the year is traditionally a time of very strong physical demand in India and other parts of south Asia and southeast Asia; it is also the time of year when western world jewelers are placing and taking delivery on orders for end-of-year products associated with gift-giving holidays.
 
J.P. Morgan today signaled that gold is a "buy" right now in the near and middle term, a turnaround from positions the company held earlier in the year. We await Goldman Sachs positioning, which has been ultra-bearish. We're guessing they come out neutral to lightly bearish in the next few weeks.
 
Last week we covered some of the fundamental factors driving silver up. To reiterate, they are, in brief: short covering buying (now an influence that is aging off the list of importance); a renewed interest in coins; exploding interest in silver in India because of their draconian import duties on gold, and finally, a resurgence in the solar panel business, which experienced a shake-out in 2012 into the first half of 2013.

India is fascinating when it comes to the white metal.

 

India's imports of silver in the second quarter of 2013 surged an astronomical 259% to 857 metric tons. Then July, standing alone, saw imports of 275 metric tons, the second-highest monthly import number in the past five years.

 

To put the four-month April to July import figures for silver into sharp perspective, 857 tons is the equivalent of roughly one third of the world's monthly production of silver.

 

This is a a clear case of the law of unintended consequences - people struggling to buy gold in India are now buying silver. India's central bank needs to focus on real ways to strengthen the rupee, not fake fixes that create havoc with small investrs and those who save via precious metals. 

 

Wishing you as always good trading,

   

Gary S. Wagner

Executive Producer


Market Forecast:

On a technical basis today’s moderate correction confirmed resistance in gold at 1380 per ounce. After the large upside price moves recently this round of profit taking was to be expected. As we are currently plotting a sub count of wave three (minor), it is still too early to tell if we have entered corrective wave four or if this is simply a price dip which is still part of wave three.

On today’s video we will look at support as well as resistance levels currently found in both gold and silver. Although we sent out an alert today highlighting the most recent correction, we have not trailed our stops above the current location of 1350. 1361 is a support level in gold, and whether or not it is significant will be determined as to whether or not markets move higher after testing that intraday low. Silver was only moderately lower, trading seven cents off on the day. Given the dramatic moves we have seen in silver concluding in a for dollar rise, this type of selloff is tepid at best.

 

 

Proper Action: We trailed stops higher last Thursday,

maintain current stops

 

 Long Gold @ 1313 Stop Below 1350

Long Silver @ 20.48 Stop Below  2200

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Gold COT

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Silver COT

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COT LINK  See previous weeks in Historical Commitments of Traders Reports. 

  

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This report is now free and publicly available to everyone

Gold Forecast: Proper Action

Closed trades:

GLD: On April 12th our stop was hit at $162. We went long at 162.82. Trade resulted in 0.82 loss per share.

Futures: Gold (GC J21) in at 1722.80. Out at at $1728 for a profit of $520.00- per Comex contract.
Forex: XAUUSD in at 1724.40. Out at at $1729 for a profit of $4.60- per ounce.
ETF's: GLD in at 161.55. Out at at $161.90 for a profit of $0.35- per share

SLV in at $24.24. Stop hit at $23.50, for a loss of $1.05 per share
May 2021 (SI K21) in at $26.26. Stop hit at $25.3 for a loss of $0.96 ounce
Forex silver in at $26.17. Stop hit at $25,30 or a loss of $0.87 per ounce

On February 18 we entered a long April Platinum trade. In at $1282. Our stop was hit today (02/26/21) @ at $1217.00
SILVER FUTURES MARCH: Entry at $27.36, and then closed the trade later @ $27.45.
XAGUSD: Entry at $27.26,, our stop was hit at $27.39

We closed our positions in SLV:
First leg SLV: @ 22.95 .out at @ $24.99
Second leg SLV @ 24.60. out at @ $24.99

On Thursday February 4 stops were hit on our long GLD ETF. We entered at 172.14. Our stop was hit at $168.29 (the open on Thursday) for a $3.85 loss per share.

GOLD FUTURES APRIL: Entry at 1845 - 1859 . Stop hit at 1813 - average loss $3900 per contract
XAUSUD: Entry at 1845 - 1857 . Stop hit at 1813 - average loss of $38 per oz
SILVER FUTURES MARCH: Entry at 25.42 - 25.46 . Stop hit at 24.11 - average loss $6650 per contract
XAGUSD: Entry at 25.33 - 25.40 - Stop hit at 24.11 - average loss $1.3 per oz
long February gold @ $1890.00 and stop hit @ $1902.20, for a profit of $1202.00 per contract
long Forex gold @ $1886.00 and stop hit @ $1898 for a profit of $12.00 per OZ
long March silver @ $26.31 and stop hit @ $26.41 for a profit of $500.00 per contract
long GLD @ $177.26 and stop hit @ $178.00 for a profit of $0.71 per share
long SLV @ $24.67 and stop hit @ 25.00 for a profit of $0.33 per share
long February Gold Futures at $1860-$1866 and stop hit at at $1869. Average profit $600 per contract
long XAUUSD at $1856-$1862 and stop hit at $1866. Average profit $6
long March Silver Futures at $25.16 - $25.25 and stop hit at $25.30. Average profit $450 per contract
long GLD @ $174.12 and stop hit at $175.78 for a profit of $1.66 per share
long GLD @ $174.12 and stop hit at $175.78 for a profit of $1.66 per share
long February Gold Futures at $1830 -$1843 and out at $1850 for a profit of $700 to $2000.00 per contract
long XAUUSD at $1841 and out at $1850 for a profit of $90.00 per mini 10 oz contract
long March Silver Futures at $24.29 and out @ $24.40 for a profit of $550.00 per comex contract
long GLD @ 1$71.50 and out @ $173.00 for a profit of $1.50 per share
long SLV @ $22.30 and out @ $22.50 for a profit of $0.20 per share
Long December gold at $1899. Stop hit at $1918, for a $1900 profit
Long forex gold at $1896.00. Stop hit at $1912, for a $1600 profit
Long December silver at $24.21. Stop hit at $25.07 for a $4300 profit
Long GLD at $180.46 and stop hit at $176.42 for a loss of $4.04 per share
Long SLV at $23.23 and stop at $22.78 for a loss of $0.40 per share
Long December Gold Futures at $1926 and stop hit at $1907.30 for a loss of $18.70 per ounce
Long Forex Gold at $1922 and stop hit at $1903 for a loss of $19.00 per ounce
Long December Silver Futures at $25.13 and stop hit at $24.73 for a loss of $0.40 per ounce
Long December gold at $1890, out at $1909.30 for a profit of $1,930.00
Long December silver at $23.95, out at $24.50 for a profit of $2,750.00
Long Forex gold at $1883.68, out $1907 for a profit of $23.32 per ounce
Long GLD ETF at $178.03, out at $179.80 for a profit of $1.77 per share
Long SLV ETF at $22.66, out at $22.03 for a loss of $0.63 per share

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