The Tricky Market Continues 5/9/2013
There is so much uncertainty in the precious markets that we're hesitant to give an overall appraisal except to repeat the observation that when gold begins to move close to 1450, physical buyers are stepping in. When it hovers around 1470, the ETF's start dumping because they have lost investors in their paper gold scheme.
The dollar soared after what we think are limp improvements in the U.S. labor market. The over-reaction is mystifying on the fundamental level. That the dollar continues to be seen as a haven speaks not so much to U.S. economic vitality but to the sorry state of the other major economic entities - Europe, China and Japan. The world is very unsettled right now. (There are some analysts suggesting that natural gas may be an alternative commodities haven!) The unsettledness is whipping the precious markets around.
There were other fundamental influences at work as well, none of them seemingly strong enough to push gold down so far in late trading after it had experienced a modest pullback in the morning session.
A survey of experts by Bloomburg News saw the majority say that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates steady through 2014. The timing of the survey is ridiculous. The ECB just lowered rates last week. How could the bankers have an inkling of what should be done after just a handful of business days?
Here's a survey: What's the unemployment rate in Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and other weak-walking euro economies? How long will it take for the United States to actually get to the Fed target of 6.5% unemployment? When will the U.S. begin to see the inflation that has built up like geyser steam in the course of all the monetary stimulation?
If you could put yourself vividly in May of last year (2012) and could survey the fundamentals terrain of precious metals trading, what would you find different than in today's lay of the land?
Unemployment stood at 8.2% then; it stands at 7.5% now. That's a reduction of less than 1%. QE3 is having what kind of effect? U.S. growth rate has slowed, not accelerated.
Yet, flock to the dollar and the U.S. equities they do. Signs and wonders. Signs and wonders.
We still have to trade the up-moves when they are trustworthy and show us some sort of stability.
As always, wishing you good trading,
Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Market Forecast: It seems as though yesterday strong upside move was merely a flash in the pan. Most of yesterday’s gains were taken away as we saw gold trade $18-$19 lower on the day. On a technical basis we have identified a major resistance level at 1470 in gold. We have not seen any type of sustained market moves above that price point. Therefore we can only assume that we are still looking at a major level of resistance. On today’s video we will look to identify critical levels of support and resistance, as it now seems as though gold is trapped in a narrow but defined range.
Proper Action:Awaiting signal
5.7.13: long gold @ 1452 out @ 1460 + $ 8.00 ||| silver @ 23.60 out @ 23.75 + .15
From the week of 05.03.2013
COT LINK See previous weeks in Historical Commitments of Traders Reports.
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