The Lightness Of Holidays
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PREMIUM MEMBERS
Gold turned higher today in thin trading on a slow roller coaster day.
Gold saw its worse price drop in November since June for a variety of reasons, some of them right on, others terribly misguided. But prices are about 5% lower for the month, regardless of the quality of analysis.
"One reason for this, besides the still ongoing ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) outflows, is the weakness of Indian imports, a weakness which could well continue for some time yet," said Eugen Weinberg, head of Commodity Research for Commerzbank, referring to the weak monthly performance.
"After all, much higher physical premiums are prompting Indian households increasingly to fall back on gold scrap for the wedding season, which is now in full swing."
The constant harping on the Fed seems to have become a syndrome with analysts and traders, like a food obsession in someone who once was malnourished. They can't seem to see beyond their sight.
All eyes are turned to December 6th when new employment data is due out in the United States.
All markets are back to work on Monday at full tilt. But unless there is some sort of external war or oil disruption news, the economic data for November that will be reported is the next fundamental milestone.
As always, wishing you good trading,
Gary
Riding Into Thanksgiving
Gold and silver are trading lower as we head into the American Thanksgiving holiday. A strengthening dollar is accounting for about a third of the drop in gold.
The dollar jumped earlier after the University of Michigan said its index of overall consumer sentiment was revised up to 75.1 thus far in November from a preliminary estimate of 72.0. Experts had expected the index to be revised up to 73.5.
Today, too, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week declined by 10,000 to a two-month low of 316,000. Economists had forecast an increase of 4,000.
The jobs data was released one day early due to the U.S. holiday.
The upbeat data offset a report showing that U.S. durable goods orders fell 2% in October, worse than expectations for a 1.9% decline, while core durable orders were down 0.1%, compared to a consensus for a 0.5% increase. The data fueled expectations that the FOMC will announce plans to taper stimulus in early 2014 and end a policy that has supported gold - as far as it has gone - for over a year.
However, as we discussed on Tuesday, there is a case for gold bulls to begin wishing for tapering rather than rooting against it.
Gold retreated from its early-day gains as some investors reduced their holdings ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday. Why worry with a belly full of turkey and trimmings?
The next big piece of news will come on December 6, when non-farm payroll stats are released.
To everyone who celebrates, we hope you have a great Thanksgiving and take the time to count your blessings.
As always, wishing you good trading,
Gary S. Wagner- Executive Producer
Market Forecast:
Proper Action
Maintain Gold Short at 1276 stop @ 1261
Maintain Short silver @ 20.47 stop @ 20.50
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Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer