We entered our final corrective C Wave in BTC
After hitting a new record high in the cash market of $61,440 on Saturday, March 13th, we have come off of that high by roughly 8%. As of 4:30 PM EST, spot Bitcoin is trading at roughly $56,500 and $56,600 in the CME’s March futures contract.
Pricing fell off by 5% on the open of the New York stock exchange in the cash markets. This had BTC futures open with a gap to the upside opening $1,500 higher than Friday’s close. In the first hour, pricing gained another $2,000 to plateau at approximately $61,000. The following eight hours, however, BTC sold off sharply, losing $6,000 in that short amount of time. Since hitting the low of $55,000 12 hours ago, (4:30 AM EST), prices have been in a short-term compression triangle between $57,500 - $55,000.
Although on a short-term 120-minute candlestick chart, this compression triangle is very clear and gives the chances of a breakout to the upside at the apex (this occurs roughly 60% of the time). I believe that, seeing as we have just begun our C wave, it is far more likely we re-test some lows before another rally ensues.
So, where will this last corrective wave C conclude? Based on the guidelines for an expanded or irregular flat wave, C is going to be at minimum the length of wave A and could be as long as 138%, 161% even 256%. As a rule of thumb, the C wave usually concludes at the same level or lower than the bottom of the A wave. So, under these guidelines, we should see this current correction take us at least $7,000 lower to $49,000 and easily as low as $44,000.
This should be taken seriously for ultra-short-term traders who should consider shorting BTC with the initial target of $45,000.