Why we pulled profits rather than trailing our stop
Today all traders that took our latest call to action we put out last Monday, October 12th, in which we told all traders to enter from Bitcoin futures from the long side (either BTC or BTM) at the market. Traders taking our call bought in at approximately $11,580 and today should sell their positions if they haven’t already done so. We recommended (visible in our proper action column) traders sell their long positions when pricing hit $11,900 - $12,000 (visible in our proper action column) and as such traders should be flat with no active positions in Bitcoin futures after pulling a profit. Traders utilizing the CME’s most-active October contract (BTC V20) made around $2,000 per 5-coin contract. On other exchanges such as Bakkt on the ICE, you earned somewhere between $300 - $420 single-coin contract such as Bakkt November futures (BTM X20-BKT).
So, with all the bullish fundamentals and momentum so far remaining intact for the world's #1 digital asset, why did we pull profits instead of simply raising or trailing our stops? Simply put the area of $11,900 - $12,650 is the area of the strongest historical resistance since Bitcoin’s fall from grace in 2017. Since this is based on historical data points rather than technical forecasting it cannot be overlooked. Bulls will likely witness defeat before a victory occurs as this will not change from a fiercely guarded resistance area until it becomes support.
Now the U.S. presidential election alone could provide the momentum needed to overcome this obstacle if the predictions of a “blue wave” turned out to be correct. However, I see it unlikely that BTC will overcome this hurdle before the November elections. possibly even longer should there be an upset after tallying the ballots. So, for the next 13 days, I see it more likely that we see profit taking or other market movers take the price of BTC down slightly rather than up.
If this occurs the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, as well as the .618% Fibonacci retracement level at $10,360 would all be good entry points to layer in positions from the long side before the election.