Bitcoin fails to break above resistance

After a two-day rally that ended two weeks of stable prices Bitcoin failed to move above its descending resistance trendline. This descending top goes back to the hard fall BTC took on May 9th, 2022, giving up $4,000 on that day. Since that time, we have had five failed attempts at cracking this resistance line including yesterday’s try.

The fundamental and macro elements driving recent moves in BTC have been dollar strength or weakness as well as hopes for a more accommodative Fed that fueled Monday and Tuesday’s rally in Bitcoin and U.S. equities.

When we look at the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) we can see that we are at the price level that has the most traded volume. This area is called the Point of Control or POC and is illustrated as a red line in the chart below.

If you look back to June 2020 you see that the area most heavily traded, the POC changes very little. This tells us that the current price level has the most volume of any price over the last two years.

This hints at why we are seeing such low volatility and suggests that trend will continue. Consolidation would be welcomed by the bulls at this point as we enter the 11th month of Bitcoin’s bear market. The failed break above the upper resistance line means we are still seeing lower highs and if we are looking at closing prices lower lows as well.