BTC price bottom likely at 2019 highs
Bitcoin has resumed its downward trend and as of 4:45 PM, ET is trading lower by almost $1,300 or (-6.38%) at $18,880. It broke through support which was the 2017-2018 high of $19,660 and seems destined to trade to the 2019 high at $13,880.
The 2019 peak price of just under $14,000 is a very convincing price target for Bitcoin in the current crypto winter. In our last article, we spoke about how each of the four previous cycles in Bitcoin the retracement reached was less than the previous,
“One last aspect of the last four cycles, particularly the three that occurred around one year after a mid-halving point, as our current cycle appears to be that we can use to hint at where BTC finds its bottom at if indeed it does head lower is how each of these three cycles retraced a little bit less than the previous. For instance, in the first cycle, Bitcoin retraced 95%, in the third cycle Bitcoin retraced 92% and in the fourth cycle, it retraced 86%. If this indeed is a pattern that continues, we would see a retracement of less than 86%, which is at roughly $13,000. As such I am calling for $14,000 as a likely bottom, which was the highest monthly close before November 2021”
As it is now a certainty that the old ATH at around $20k will not be a strong support level as it had attempted to be and the only support level standing in the way of $14k is the 78% retracement at $17,800. As the quote above explains if the pattern of higher retracements signaling the bottom continues, we would have to form a bottom somewhere above $12,988 the 86% retracement level. If BTC were to revisit the highs of 2019 and find support there it would be an 84.5% retracement, this falls in line with being less than the previous cycle's retracement. This all points to the 2019 top at around 14k as being the most likely price point for Bitcoin to find a bottom.
