Is BTC’s rally still intact?

As of 4:50 PM EDT, Bitcoin is trading near the lows of the day at around $45,700 according to Coinbase. In the CME’s futures market, Bitcoin’s most active contract month (April BTCJ2022) is trading near $45,845. Some analysts have been looking for the gap formed on the CME futures chart between last Friday and Monday to be filled. With the BTC on the CME minutes away from a 1-hour break before re-opening on Globex, it appears that the gap created over the weekend ($45,395 - $46,565) will have come close to being erased, but will not get completely backfilled as of today.

Another interesting trait of the CME’s chart compared to Spot charts is the placement of the 200-day simple moving average (red line). In the spot markets this long-term moving average resides at $48,300 and is affectively marks current resistance. While the 200-day M.A. on the CME futures chart had been resistance since the start of 2022 was surpassed on Monday when the price gap was formed. In CME futures the 200-day M.A. Is pegged at $45,880 and although intra-day the market dipped below this average, with the day’s trading coming to a close, this average may become support as prices are only about $100 beneath this long-term technical indicator.

Back in the spot markets looking at the rally that began in the middle of March that took BTC above $48,000, we can see that the last two days equate to a very shallow correction.

Looking at the charts above, two different data sets are used for the start of the retracement. You can see that the 23% retracement level from the last 16 days (in blue) and the last 35 days (in purple) both indicate the 23% level is of importance and remains active as either support or resistance. This level is commonly accepted as the minimum distance to qualify a price decline as a retracement. As such, Bitcoin closing above this level bodes well for the bulls and is signaling there is probably more upside to come.

The last two days have caused no chart damage, and our target for the conclusion to be as high as $53,000 remains in our current model. Traders who have been taking our calls pulled profits on half of their position yesterday at $48,000 and remain long the other half of their position from $43,000. Protective stops should be left alone, pricing came within $16 from stopping us out with a profit (on remaining half), with lows that came in at $45,516.