Bitcoin may be well on its way to $35k
Bitcoin may be well on its way to $35k
According to A Fibonacci retracement from the all-time highs (Nov. 2021) to the lows hit exactly one year later (Nov. 2022) BTC has just breached the first significant retracement level this week.
After breaching the 200-week moving average four weeks ago and gaining 26% in a single week Bitcoin has been trading sideways unable to budge in either direction. It has been my belief that the next move will likely be to the upside and when we get a breakout, I am expecting another significant run-up like the one witnessed four weeks ago.
We may have gotten just that with today's gains of 2.82% ($798) as of 5:15 EST. Even though the gains are quite small for BTC, the level that we broke above is an important one. We have tested this level multiple times over the last few weeks and failed to hold it but I feel as though the fourth time is the charm in this case.
The last three weeks have settled as doji candles with almost identical closes and long wicks stretching to the upside and downside indicating that neither the bulls nor the bears had the upper hand but both were adamantly attempting to shift the pricing in their favor. Even though no gains were made until today that held the previous weeks were indeed bullish because they represent a base being formed at the higher price point achieved in the second week of March.
Although today’s high is not above the highs reached in March, the fact that the gains today seem as though they will be sustained throughout the close is significant and hints that a new rally is underway in BTC.
First long-term Fibonacci level is taken out
As we stated at the top of this article, we have broken out above the second major technical level on a long-term view, the first was the 200-week simple moving average.
The retracement from $69K in Nov. 2021 down to $15k in Nov. 2022 gives us clearcut technical levels of support and resistance the first of which is the 23.6% retracement that occurs at $28,110. Last week we did close slightly above that level but today we have our first clear-cut break out above the first longer-term Fib. level since hitting a bottom a few months back.
The next level in this data set is the 38.2% retracement at roughly $35k-$36k, which is the true brass ring in terms of determining the next rally toward higher prices. However, I believe once we get a close above the $30,000 level, we will see a swift run-up to around $35,000. Today's breach of the 23.6% retracement is evidence that a break above $30k is on its way. Overall, Bitcoin's price seems to be poised for another significant run-up, as the one witnessed four weeks ago, as we continue to breach significant technical levels of support and resistance.