BTC wave count points towards a possible continuation of the rally

My current wave count in Bitcoin puts BTC in its 5th wave of our bullish impulse count. But let us go back to the beginning of this current bullish wave count to paint a more complete picture.

Here are some basic guidelines on how to check if your count makes sense, these are by no means strict guidelines but rather approximations.

• • Wave 2 is 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of wave 1

• • Wave 3 is 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, or 323.6% of wave 1-2

• • Wave 4 is 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3 but no more than 50%

• • There are three different ways to measure wave 5. First, wave 5 is inverse 123.6 – 161.8% retracement of wave 4. Second, wave 5 is equal to wave 1. Third, wave 5 is 61.8% of waves 1-3

I am marking the low hit on December 30th,2022 as the start of our wave 1. Wave 2 retraced almost precisely to 61.8% of wave 1.

Wave 3 fell short of the 1.618% extension of wave 1 but did exceed a 1:1 relationship hitting a 1.272% extension of wave 1 at $30,932.

Our wave 4 came close to surpassing a 50% retracement of wave 3 and did surpass it but only on an intraday basis so I am giving it a pass.

So now to the relevant and current wave 5. Where should it conclude if it were to continue to follow these basic guidelines for impulse wave counts? Well as shown above in the wave count guidelines there are three ways that can be used to forecast the termination point of a 5th wave.

The first method utilizes an inverse 123.6 – 161.8% retracement of wave 4.

As you can see from the chart above, we have yet to reach the minimum of an inverse 1.236% which comes in at $31,853. Using this method wave 5 can go as high as $34,047.

The second method states that the 5th wave should come in equal to wave 1.

As shown above we would need to continue to rally to $33,689 to fit this method of 5th-wave forecasting.

The Third method calls for a 61.8% move when compared to waves 1-3.

As shown above, this would also take pricing to right around $33,500.

So, the count calls for a move to at least $31,853 and could go as high as $34,000. Utilizing the latter two methods both point to around $33,500. Seeing that today’s intraday high hit $31,458 this 5th wave may have concluded. However, I believe that the strong resistance at approximately $30,500 is stalling the rise to higher prices and we could easily see $33,500-$34,000 before this 5th wave concludes.