Skip to main content

Video-April-10-2013-Archives-Daily-Show

Video section is only available for
PREMIUM MEMBERS

 

 

 

The debaters within the Federal Reserve Open Committee seem to be confused and in turn have confused not only the gold and silver markets but the stock market, as well.

We saw gold drop 1.66% today as of 4 PM New York time. We saw the equities markets again take wing. But there are some large contradictions going on within not just precious, but all metals markets.

If indeed the U.S. economy is moving up faster, and if the world economy is going to follow the big dog's lead, why would every single metal decline in price today?The only metal to escape the drop was lead, which was up less than 1/10th of a per cent. More economic activity requires more industrial metals which, common sense tells us, raises the price. Yet...

The decline of precious prices would make sense, (if traders were buying fully into the critics of easing's story), that platinum, palladium, copper, nickel, aluminum, and zinc would find running room to the upside. If they rose and gold (and possibly silver) fell, there would be some logic. But the market has grown incredibly undisciplined.

If the labor market continues its abysmal performance once April's numbers become clear, quantitative easing may continue indefinitely, or a new incarnation of stimulus may appear.

Why would traders and investors react to a report that was so out-of-date? 

"Clearly the Fed was contemplating the timing of a tapering in asset purchases," said Nathan Sheets, former international-finance director at the Fed and now global head of international economics at Citigroup Inc. "But my feeling is the last week's employment report has put such discussions on hold. They must now be in wait-and-see mode to see what happens with the labor market."

Here is a direct quote from the minutes:

"In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the March FOMC meeting, real GDP growth was revised down somewhat in the near term, largely reflecting the federal spending sequestration that went into effect on March 1 and the resulting drag from reduced government purchases. The staff's medium-term forecast for real GDP growth was little changed, on balance, as the effects of somewhat more fiscal policy restraint and a higher assumed path for the foreign exchange value of the dollar were essentially offset by a brighter outlook for domestic energy production and a higher projection for household wealth, which reflected upward revisions to the projected paths for both equity prices and home prices."

In fact, there seems to be nothing new in the minutes from our reading of them. There is also an undercurrent in the FOMC that says bond buying may actually increase. Read the Wall Street Journal's digest form of the minutes for yourself here.

Certainly, Goldman-Sachs's downgrading of gold today did not help matters. Of course, Goldman is heavily short in the market, so their prophecy is self-serving. 

Today's reaction elevates the expression "undisciplined trading" to a new level.

Look for bargain-buying aplenty in the next few sessions.

As always, wishing you good trading,

gsw_0.png  

Gary S. Wagner

Executive Producer/The Gold Forecast

gary@thegoldforecast.com 

On Skype Gary.S. Wagner


Market Forecast:

 

On a technical basis today’s market selloff in both gold and silver push gold prices once again near its critical support level. Whether the market is reacting to the early release of the FOMC minutes or to the latest Goldman Sachs Outlook for gold, we have witnessed a series of knee-jerk reactions and overreactions in gold prices. Following the dismal jobs report on Friday and the strong rally which ensued, the market has been trapped giving and taking gains and losses almost on a daily basis. Today’s lower prices did stop us out in gold, and we currently are maintaining our long position in silver. My recommendation is to wait till the dust settles as we interpret this latest data, and stand the sidelines in gold maintaining our long silver position.

 

USCFTC_banner.jpg

COT LINK

See previous weeks in Historical Commitments of Traders Reports.

 

Proper Action: 

Long  gold  @ 1563 Out @ 1567

No current position in gold

Maintain long in silver 27.02

Silver Stop below 26.95

 

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer