Bulls, Bears Duking It Out Except...

Wherever you look there is a battle raging - except in equities, which seem to be steamrolling their through the autumn. The lure of the stock markets has been pushing just about every other kind of investment down, although we all know the U.S. dollar is going gangbusters as well.

That dollar strength today helped gold slide lower after it was bid up early in the day, threatening, but not breaking through our stops.

Crude oil continued its slow, unrelenting decline and for the first time Brent has breached the $80 mark and draws closer to regular benchmark U.S. crude. There are a variety of reasons for that convergence, one of which is the glut of cheap oil. Another has been the construction across the world of more modern refineries that can turn out finished "light" oil comparable to crude at a very small premium.

OPEC ministers are squabbling a bit about output levels, but it should be noted that Saudi Arabia has already cut production modestly. We're not sure if they're bailing out the ocean or not. Production in the U.S. is growing exponentially and eventually, one of the OPEC members will feel compelled to match the U.S. price.

At one point, gold was down around 2%, but it has since recovered slightly. Profit taking was behind that, but following right behind were buyers who bid it back up. Then it began to fall, lacking momentum. Those betting on a second rise were disappointed.

The seesaw will continue to swing up and down, but as we've said, short of something major in the Ukraine or Middle East, gold has no legs to take it higher.

Boiled down, the stronger the U.S. economy, the weaker will gold be. If China begins to really hum again or if Europe picks up (not a good bet), then gold will fall even further. Germany expects its growth next year to be around 1%.

We love reporting on fundamentals, but, as the market continues to seek direction, we're all better off paying close attention to technical analysis found in our newsletters and on the Gold Forecast's website.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Please be aware of this month's travel and holiday schedule, which will cover the period from tomorrow through the 30th. Thanksgiving falls within those days. Additionally, during that period, I will be in Indonesia, lecturing to key gold traders there (11.13 to 11.23) . The time differential will make it necessary for me to send out the regular fundamentals (upper portion) of the newsletter on a at the usual time. Videos timing may be different. You will receive special notification immediately following the release of a new video - on the website. Of course, trade alerts will not not change. I will monitor markets as usual and have all equipment necessary to produce videos. Thank you.

Wishing you as always, good trading,