Conflict And Conflicting Data

The unrest in Iraq seems not to be enough of a motivator for gold traders to grow more bullish.

However, it is not irrational. The U.S. manufacturing report rose a very solid 0.6% in May, and the New York region's (Empire State) index of manufacturing rose to a very impressive 19.3 beating all estimates, which range from the 12 to 15 range.

Homebuilders' confidence bumped up to within a whisker of what is considered solidly good conditions - 49, which is close to the 50 score needed for true confidence to emerge.

Be that as it may, the IMF revised their view of growth in the U.S. for the year downward, essentially asserting that the 2% contraction experienced in the first quarter due to a particularly fierce winter will pull the yearly growth figures down to around 2%. It's not nice to fool Mother Nature.

The IMF points to the sluggishness in home sales and stagnation in wages. You would think some of the august bodies that influence our everyday lives might stop and make the connection between building and bucks in the consumer's pocket.

Wages aren't stagnant. They're mired in politics. In fact, many financial institutions are beginning to get this and are calling for higher minimum wages.

Finally, tomorrow and Wednesday will see the FOMC meet. A lot of money will stay sidelined until news comes out of that conclave.

In light of that, U.S. equities markets are basically flat. Europe's were down about a third of a percentage point. Asia was mixed.

We expect nothing earth-shattering out of Yellen and her posse tomorrow. It would be nice to hear the rate hawks keep their beaks tightly closed till we get a bit more exuberant recovery in gear.

As always, wishing you good trading,