A Confluence of Events
Call it a confluence of events, a perfect storm but no matter what you call it multiple factors are lining up at the same time magnifying certain tendencies of the financial markets including gold.
First, with Venezuela in political turmoil as citizens continue to riot. More importantly the tension continues to ratchet up amid growing efforts by the opposition to unseat the socialist president Nicolas Madero.
Then there is England, this Tuesday citizens will once again return to the polling booths and vote on a Brexit deal with the European Union. Based on reports that Prime Minister Theresa Mays proposal has not changed much since the last vote (which failed) it likely will be rejected.
Add to the geopolitical issues in other countries the United States is still recovering from the partial U.S government shutdown which was temporarily paused briefly for the next three weeks.
And then there’s the Federal Reserve and the upcoming FOMC meeting. It is widely anticipated that the Fed will not implement a rate hike at the next meeting. According to MarketWatch, Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at commercezbank, said, “We believe that the U.S. Fed will not raise interest rates any further on Wednesday because economic concerns have increased.”
An analyst a UBS global wealth management’s chief investment officer wrote, “Markets are now pricing in no rate hikes this year, and [Fed] Chair Jerome Powell will need to reinforce the accommodative rhetoric at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference.”
Lastly there is extended pressure in U.S equities today with the Dow Jones currently trading down 229 points almost a 1% decline.
These factors combined have definitely enhanced current bullish market sentiment which is favoring risk off, safe haven investments such as gold and silver. Currently gold futures basis the February contract is up $5.10 at $1303.10, And April futures are currently trading at $1309.30. Silver futures had gains of approximately $0.07 on the day currently fixed at $15.77.
Given that the U.S dollar index is relatively unchanged on the day gains in both gold and silver can be directly attributed to market sentiment and traders seem to favor the long side of these two metals.
Based on our technical studies gold basis the February contract shows major support at the .38% retracement level at $1276 per ounce. Our studies also indicate that we have two distinct levels of resistance the first at $1312.90, and $1369.
April gold currently shows support at $1287, with resistance at $1348 and major resistance at $1396.
Lastly as we talked about previously we identified a golden cross in the February futures contract in which the short-term 50-day moving average crossed above the longer-term 200-day moving average. Today the April contract has also just formed a golden cross between the 50-day and 200-day moving average
Wishing you as always, good trading,
Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer