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El Dedo Del Destino - The Underlying Force Behind Changes in Market Sentiment

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“Ambition drives you on, Ability certainly helps, but the fickle finger of fate and luck are great things *
 Fergus Henderson

For those of us old enough to remember the comedy show ‘laugh in’ by Rowan & Martin, you most certainly would remember the trophy that was awarded called the “Finger Fickle of Fate.”

In its most basic interpretation, its meaning can be paraphrased as the acknowledgement that “something ominous may happen in the future without any determination or within specific time frame.” Which is to say sometimes a shift in market sentiment

It is one of the most profound explanations as to why changes in market sentiment can occur as an unwritten, and unforeseeable force the underlying causes of change in market sentiment are not always based on logic, and can be undetecable until they occur.

Known by many names; El Dedo del Destino, The Cup of St. Sebastian and the Fickle Finger of Fate, these terms all describe the same idea, that fate is not always logical and at the time it is revealed was completely unforeseen prior to the event itself. Commonly referred to as an unseen and unforeseeable force that controls the direction of all living things, you can easily use this concept to explain sudden changes or shifts in market sentiment that give no hints whatsoever prior to the event unfolding.

In the case of the financial markets, the “fickle finger of fate” is a term that describes very well the difficulty in pinpointing the timeline when market sentiment will change to reflect new fundamentals in such market. That is to say human emotions do not always make logical sense. The pivots are ominous, and may not offer any clues as to when in the future market sentiment will shift, forecasting the timeline of occurrence is harder yet to accurately predict.

In the case of today’s respectable upside move in gold, the precious yellow metal reacted to old news that has already existed, and for whatever reason it is now the time that the market has chosen to react to that information; except to acknowledge there is no defined rationalization for the timing.

Over the last week gold pricing has had substantial upside moves on both Friday, May 24th, and today. On both occasions the rallies which occurred on were based on no more than the fickle nature of how a trader’s mind works. Seasoned and veteran traders have learned to acknowledge the feeling as instinctual, however the best traders realize these instinctual impulses are simply the internalization of many years of which they have studied these concepts and have become internalized. While sometimes these changes occur when they do without any rational logic behind the move. It is my belief that they express the fickleness of the human mind, and its emotion framework making sense out of rational and logical fundamental data.

It’s as Easy as “Paint On - Paint off & Sand on - Sand off”

In the movie the karate kid, the wise Japanese teacher “Noriyuki”, played by Pat Morita, expressed it best when he tried to teach Danielson karate. Through a repetitive action he taught his student how to completely internalize it.

Because only then will that action become a “instinctual” automatic reflex. Not until you’ve internalized an action or an intellectual concept can use that skill and, “paint on” without any effort.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer