Encore. Encore. Thanks To The Buck!

We can again thank the weakening dollar for the small rise in gold today. without that softness, gold bulls would be about even for the day. As it is, at the close in New York, gold is up $4.60, $.20 of which is from the down dollar.

The gold market reacted with a shrug to the latest FOMC minutes while the equities market seized the elaboration of earlier information from the Fed in its teeth and shook it for all it is worth.

Zachary Karabell, head of global strategies at Envestnet said, "All the Fed knows right now is they are going to taper unless something massive happens in a negative way. This is a very accommodative Fed; Taper was accommodative plus, plus, now it's accommodative plus. We're not even near the territory of actual tightening."

Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the Fed's own strategies would be data driven and that essentially it had abandoned more simplistic benchmarks such as plain vanilla employment levels. They are looking for texture in the recovery and that's a good thing.

Since the first tapering move in December, we have been saying saying that tapering is a good thing for bulls. Today's action is a prime example. With tapering lessening the Fed's commitment to buying back sour paper and a pledge to keep rates low for many months after QE3 ends, the equities markets will no doubt be bid up even higher.

However, there is some detailed chatter about an approaching tech bubble, although for now it is just talk. In fact, tech stocks led the pack higher today.

A relative quieting of the Russian-Ukraine crisis also helped to keep a lid on regular gold trading today. However, we should keep a close eye on the situation, which may break open at any time.

The key dates to watch are May 1 (May Day); the days approximately two weeks before Ukrainian elections on May 25 (so the 12th through the 15th); and the weeks immediately following. This does not mean, though, that events might not outrun our ability to analyze them quickly enough.  

This article in the New York Times on Ukraine is extremely enlightening.  

As always, wishing you good trading,