Presidential debate was more like a mixed martial arts title fight

Last night’s first presidential debate was more like an MMA (mixed martial arts) bout then a discourse between two candidates seeking the highest office in the land.

While there were brief moments in which either former vice President Biden or President Trump actually spoke about the real issues, in almost every case the candidate answering the question was rudely interrupted by his opponent.

In the case of last night’s debate, the interruptions were not equally distributed by both candidates, with President Trump continually speaking over former vice President Bidens attempt to answer the question posed to him by the moderator. Trump was not alone as viewers witnessed one of the most bizarre and unforgettable presidential debates in history. Even the moderator was unable to contain the back-and-forth banter and insults that became the predominant theme of the debates.

You could cut the tension with a knife as there was a constant barrage from both candidates making snide remarks or calling the other candidate an outright liar. To say that there was very little substance would be an understatement. In fact, if the desired outcome was rapid exchange of insults, then both candidates were spot on in achieving that goal.

According to MarketWatch analysts at Height Capital Markets said, “Trump’s job in the debate in Cleveland was to “reduce voters’ confidence” in Biden’s “leadership capabilities and mental capacity,” but the Republican incumbent didn’t succeed on that count amid all of the “crosstalk, personal insults and interruptions.” Early reactions to the debate suggest Trump’s performance was a net negative.”

I believe the most important take away from yesterday’s presidential debate wasn’t the lack of content containing real answers to the serious question posted, but rather the dialog highlighted that the chasm and divide in U.S. citizens is growing even wider, and is becoming more polarized to one side or the other.

The moderator, Chris Wallace was unable to maintain any control. Many criticized him for his inability to handle President Trump’s comments made while former Vice President Biden a question from Chris Wallace. But Trump was not alone in terms of his off-color remarks, at times Biden was just as, if not more brutal in terms of what he said and how he said it.

Concurrently yesterday the secretary of the treasury Stephen Mnuchin announced the Democrats are pushing for a new stimulus bill which would reinstate $600 dollars of  benefits to those unemployed as well as provide PPP loans for small businesses.

As reported in MarketWatch, “On Monday, Democrats unveiled a scaled-down version of the HEROES Act, their proposed stimulus package that passed in the House in May. Originally the package had a $3 trillion price tag. The revised version would cost $2.2 trillion. It calls for extending the $600 weekly benefit through Jan. 2021 and a second round of $1,200 direct payments to households, both of which were included in the prior version of the HEROES Act, and were part of the CARES Act passed in March.”

This created the optimism which was largely responsible for today’s strong reversal in U.S. equities. However, the same news should have been a bullish factor taking gold higher, it did not. If passed, the additional $3 trillion fiscal expenditure would certainly take the already historically high national debt in the United States to a level never seen before.

This is why Friday’s U.S. Labor Department’s jobs report is such an important data set which will set the course for fiscal stimulus in the months ahead. As we said yesterday economists had already forecasted a fairly robust number of unemployed or underemployed individuals returning to the workforce to the tune of 850,000. The economists also predicted that the unemployment rate would drop from 8.4% to 8.2%.

For the most part this has been largely factored into current pricing for financial assets. That means that if the actual numbers are well under or over those forecasted, we will see a period of time in which the financial markets will readjust to the new data presented.

Wishing you as always good trading and good health,