Sometimes There Is Just Trading

And of course, the gyrations of the dollar.... despite a weaker dollar, the price of gold fell a little over a dollar. But the session essentially gave us a push and pull between the bear and bull.

U.S. existing home sales feel for the second straight month, but there is a subtext for the declines. Investors have been snapping up homes - foreclosed, distressed, or just those ripe at a good price - at bargain levels.

That supply is simply drying up and the many, many companies that might have been buying fifty or a hundred homes per month are pulling back on their aggressiveness. In the broader economic picture, that probably doesn't mean a whole lot, and may even be good for consumers, who may see a slight relaxation in market prices.

Gold and silver swung in a wide range today. In Asia and europe, prices were down dramatically, but by the time the floor opened in New York, bargain hunters were in place and did their best to take the two metals into positive territory.

All major stock indices across the globe were down today, reflecting again the pause in momentum that has presented us with a confidence question, and a value question both at the same time. Can the markets go higher at the price levels already achieved?

Crude oil and Brent were again both down, telling us once again that supplies are more than adequate - maybe too abundant. The drop in prices should be interesting for U.S. states that have been riding the energy boom.

Bond yields were again down under the gathering fair-weather clouds of outlook, outlook, outlook. The U.S. seems to be the light of the world economy, as spotty as the recovery has been.

PBS last week was running its series on the Roosevelts. It is worth noting that the Great Depression effectively began in early 1930 and, even on the eve of U.S. entry into WWII, it had not been fully overcome. It really took the unprecedented deficit spending that went along with the war that finally broke the back of the economic meltdown.

While the Great Recession has been of a lower magnitude, nevertheless it was pretty serious. That we have recovered this far in the 7-1/2 years since the beginning of it is testimony not to Congress certainly, but to the Fed, which foresaw that the recession could grow into a depression and acted decisively, if not always perfectly.

Amusingly enough, last week's "hawkish Fed" is turning into this week's "dovish Fed," if you follow the commentary writers and presenters closely enough. Do we have real analytical minds in the financial press anymore?

As always, wishing you good trading,