Standing On the Corner Waiting and Waiting for Yellen

Just as nature abhors a vacuum, investors abhor uncertainty. That is what is driving the market this week as we (still) await Fed chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

For the record, here is a brief description of the symposium, taken from the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City:

“Since 1978 the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has hosted an annual economic policy symposium. The event is designed as a forum for central bankers, policy experts and academics to come together to focus on a topic that is not necessarily of immediate concern, but instead looks into the future at emerging issues and trends.”

About 12 years ago, the symposium focused on the problems with derivatives. They were ignored and we paid the price via the Great Recession.

Even though oil is up about 1.20% on the day, gold, silver, the dollar, and U.S. equities are flat as a board. The 10-year yield on the U.S. Treasury bond is up marginally.

West Texas Intermediate is up mainly on a slightly soft dollar but also further speculation that OPEC will freeze production. As Yogi Berra said, “It’s déjà vu all over again.”

Investors and traders are ignoring a major data release today in favor of the Yellen address. Our opinion is that she will talk about broader issues well beyond an interest rate increase.

The Commerce Department said that non-defense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft), a heavily scrutinized proxy for business spending plans, increased 1.6% last month, the largest gain since January.

These so-called core capital goods orders advanced 0.5% in June. The rise in July marked the first month-on-month gain since January 2015. Economists had forecast core capital goods orders rising only 0.3% last month.

Core capital items include tools, machinery, and equipment – the items that allow business and industry to do their work such as producing goods. Transportation items are excluded because orders and deliveries are very inconsistent and can make one month or one quarter top-heavy with growth while the next period may be completely barren.

Regardless, this is the kind of report that will fuel speculation that the Fed will be raising rates sometime this year. But, there are still four months to be reported upon before the December FOMC meeting.

Wishing you as always, good trading,