Ukraine Surprise

You can't outrun the history train.

Today's market-driving news consists of two prongs, plain and simple.

The macro side of the news let us in on some details of the thinking of the FOMC, regarding where they believe the U.S. economy is going. Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the Fed is pleased with the progress of the world's largest economy in every sector except housing.

Weakness in housing will help to keep interest rates depressed for some time. Although she offered no surprises - apparently she learned from sticking her fingers in the fire a few months ago - Yellen did say that QE3 would unwind completely by the fall if unemployment continues to perk downward.

"Janet Yellen didn't say anything new in her testimony. She continues to talk about how they are data dependent, how they can change on a dime, but she didn't say rates are going up any time soon, which is exactly what people expected," said Ken Polcari, director of the NYSE floor division at O'Neil Securities in New York.

The support found in Yellen's words allowed both precious metals traders and equities traders to focus on world affairs.

Vladimir Putin claims that Russian troops will be pulling back from the Ukrainian border, although western intelligence sees no such evidence so far. Putin struck the deal with a Swiss delegation of diplomats that is serving as a stand-in for NATO in its various expressions.  

Putin went even further, putting a lid on his bully boys in the regions seeking independence.

While negotiations between Ukrainian separatists and the interim government in Kiev were still going on, Mr. Putin also said he was appealing "to representatives of southeast Ukraine and supporters of federalization to hold off the referendum scheduled for May 11, in order to give this dialogue the conditions it needs to have a chance."

Needless to say, Ukraine's officials are looking at the move with grave suspicion.  

The softening of tone in the region helped widely to force gold down as a safe-haven for the moment. However, these kinds of situations do seem to often turn on a dime.

As always, wishing you good trading,