Whenever a market becomes volatile, there is often wild speculation about the why's and wherefore's of the movements. Commentators often feel the need to generate news where there is no solid information and that can only add to the bafflement that the small, but serious, investor feels as markets move around precipitately.
Thus, today, we thought we'd take a look at what "big" players - the real ones with skin in the game - are saying about gold. Of course we caution that some of these investors have specific bets in the market and, like everyone else, they will describe the world they hope to see, rather than the world as it is.
BlackRock Inc.'s Catherine Raw said sales didn't reflect fundamentals and that it was a "panic event" and "out of perspective" because inflation may accelerate. Raw also said from London that "The probability of inflation over the next five years is higher, not lower, than it was last year. Other things, such as cash losing money (value), the Cyprus event, savings being targeted, means people are looking for alternatives."
It should be noted that BlackRock is the largest holder of iShares Gold Trust and the fifth largest in SPDR (GLD).
Bart Melek of TD Securities in Toronto told Bloomberg yesterday that "A correction of that magnitude begets a fairly robust bounce back." He added that central-bank buying is a positive.
"Although still weak, the underlying physical market is responding to the price decline," HSBC said. "We believe coin and small bar demand is rising. This is evidenced by a rise in premiums for gold bars in Singapore to their highest levels in 18 months, according to Reuters. We also believe central banks, notably in the emerging world, may be attracted to the market at these prices. These USD-laden central banks still require bullion to help diversify their foreign-exchange holdings."
Gold's long-term trend is "intact," according to John Reade, a partner and gold strategist at Paulson. It is naturally in Paulson's interest to give gold a pep talk since they essentially took one of the biggest baths in gold trading history last week.
The Voice of America, reporting from India said, "There is also increased interest in the wholesale gold market in New Delhi, where traders are clinching more deals than in the past few years. The head of the Delhi Bullion and Jewelers Welfare Association, Vimal Kumar Goyal says orders from retailers have nearly doubled since prices tumbled."
The Sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett, has been issuing statements that say that the gold rush is over because "fear" is no longer a ruling sign in the constellation of investment.
That may be, but the other half of the gold Gemini is inflation. Traders may have to wait for it to kick in, but it eventually will. Economics 101 tells us it must because eventually the Federal Reserve's ledgers have to be balanced and, if everything goes as planned, the U.S. economy will heat up, and probably become overheated.
We wrote some weeks ago that there would be a time in the precious markets when we would have to march through the narrow defile between safe-haven gold and inflation-hedge gold. We may be in that moment right now.
That there is no consensus among big players is indicative of how volatility might continue for some time.
But, volatility is not a bad thing. Catching prices as they are rising is what matters while getting out when prices slide preserves profits.
As always, wishing you good trading,
Gary S. Wagner
Executive Producer/The Gold Forecast
On Skype Gary.S. Wagner
Market Forecast: Market trading activity in the precious metals can be best characterized as the calm after the storm. Since the drastic selloff witnessed in last Friday’s and Monday’s trading activity and heating an intraday low of 1320 in gold, prices have been drastically range bound. Today’s video will look at that activity in detail outlining how this price action could either be foreshadowing a consolidation before gold prices plunge lower or consolidation before we see a key reversal and moved to the upside. On a straightforward technical basis we do not have enough information to postulate that either assumption is correct. However yesterday we did suggest a strategy in which we would take profits from our current position. Entering the market at 1373 we suggested pulling profits anywhere between 1385 and 1395, should the market move back towards those highs and back off. This trading strategy could be accomplished through price orders or market orders if you were watching the screen. In either case some traders did take that call to exit. We also made it clear to exit your long silver at the point in which you exited your long gold trade. Hopefully you were able to take advantage of that strategy. That being said we now have some clients were still long and some that have exited their trades. In today’s video we will discuss strategies for each case.
Proper Action: If you have held:
Long Gold @ 1373. Keep stops at 1359.
Silver stops hit or small profit taken, no open posistion
See previous weeks in Historical Commitments of Traders Reports.
Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer