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4/25/2013
Gold jumped today more than it has in any session since last June 29. Make of this what you may, but certainly a floor has formed under the yellow metal and though there are bearish technical signals popping up, The fundamentals tone is very positive. 

Aside from strong physical demand, Russia. Turkey and Kazakhstan are snatching up gold for their sovereign funds and central banks. 

 "Prices are roaring higher with reports of increased physical buying worldwide." said Michael Smith of Y&K Futures & Options in Port Saint Lucie, Florida. "News about central banks buying is very bullish"

 U.S. Mint sale of gold coins is soaring as well. In March only 62,000 ounces were sold, but in April thus far, the number is 196,5000 ounces. 

 However, ETFs remain a trouble spot for gold as they continue to shed holdings, although the pace is slackening. The dumping of gold assets by ETFs is expected to continue, although the influence should be less and less as markets stabilize. A bigger question is this: What is a gold-backed fund going to do when it dumps more and more and more gold? What is their core business and how do they manage it?

 There is a possibility at this juncture that we will see a divergence between the prices of physical gold, spot gold and gold futures. It's a little unusual, but from time to time traders (as opposed to investors) hedge one for of a holding against another. 

 However, we have to be aware that the conditions that are luring in physical buyers could end at any time. What is the threshold price where the small buyer says, "No"?

 "Physical buying has been strong but the question is where are these buyers are coming from? There could be a fundamental shift from commercial buying of paper assets into physical gold. If that's the case, gold prices may continue to go up," said Joyce Liu at Phillip Futures.

"But then I suspect, it's most likely the buyers are retail investors who don't know much about gold's personality and behavior. If that's the case, how long can this physical buying sustain?" As always, wishing you good trading,

 

   

 Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer


Market Forecast:  You have to hand it to a free and open market. After witnessing gold prices plummet, aggressive, astute traders began buying up the precious metal at a feverish pace. Today’s upside move could very well be signaling the conclusion of our long corrective phase and also indicate the beginning of an impulse phase. Although as it is a little early to make that claim with absolute conviction, day by day the price activity adds additional technical evidence to that possibility. The key numbers that we are looking out right now are 1470 and 1505. It is however 1470 that is the critical price point I am looking at, because a close above that price point would give strong technical credence to the fact that we are not just witnessing a bounce prior to more downside in gold prices. So we will look to see if we can close above 1470 and maintain that price point. That being said today’s upside move is significant and very welcomed. We sent out a trade recommendation to raise stops. But I’m yesterday show we also mentioned that those who wish to pull profits could do so at 1440. For those traders my suggestion is to begin to scale back into the market on any dip and initiate positions on the long side. Price orders to exit trades limit your upside potential and work best in a market called within a defined trading range. On today’s video I will explain my rationale for using trailing stops as opposed to price orders.

 

 

 

Proper Action:

Maintain Long gold @ 1414 stop below 1430

No Silver Trade

 

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COT LINK  See previous weeks in Historical Commitments of Traders Reports.

 

 

 

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer