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The Wine Press Effect   
 

Whenever fruit is pressed - grapes, apples, olives - the first few turns of the wheel produce a small, but healthy trickle. A few more turns and the trickle turns into a gush until the fruit is all squeezed out.

 

Earlier this week, as the bellicose words between the West on one side and Syria, Iran and Russia on the other softened, the war premium was taken out of the precious metals markets. That would be the first trickle. 

 

Then, focus fell on the FOMC meeting next week, which a slight majority of analysts are saying will provide the beginning of tapering of QE3. A little more trickle as gold and silver were pressed. Then came technical selling, which generated a torrent of downward pressure. It took gold down 3% and silver down 5.5% today. 

 

However, we have to ask ourselves a number of fundamental questions. The biggest one we have in mind today is: Where is the money going?

 

The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ are all off (marginally). Oil and natural gas are up, but not dramatically. U.S., German and Japanese 10-year bond yields are off. Platinum and palladium are off. Copper, nickel and lead are off while aluminum is up a tiny bit. 

 

A fairly logical deduction is that more and more money is being sidelined. A corollary is that the equities markets are in a period of uncertainty because of Fed worries. Equites want QE3 to continue on one hand because it pumps more money into the economy. On the other hand, it wants it to taper so bond yields, which affect real interest rates, will come back down.

 

The downward cascade began overnight, gold prices falling so fast that an unusual event was triggered.

 

Nanex Research said that a mega sell order among gold-futures contracts caused a "circuit-breaker" to trip and shut down electronic trading on Globex for 20 seconds early Thursday. (Nanex provides sales, exchange reporting, and network access to direct financial data feeds.)

 

The CME Group termed the 20-second episode a "Stop Logic Event."

 

"A 20-second pause is the standard Stop Logic period for overnight electronic trading in our metals complex," a CME spokesman said when interviewed abut the event. "Stop logic introduces a momentary pause in trading, lasting between 5-20 seconds, to prevent excessive price movements from cascading stop price orders," according to the CME.

 

Meanwhile, the blacksmith cries out, "How are you going to replace human hands?!"

 

A "False Labor Data Event" also played into the decline of precious metals. There was an unexpected drop in the number of unemployment filings last week. But oops, two states didn't report in because of glitches in their new computer systems. So, what was going to be a big drop 

of 31,000 fewer claims will end up being a wash once all the data is reported.

 

Economists surveyed by major financial media outlets had expected claims to rise to 330,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis from an unrevised 323,000 in the last week of August. 

 

As Bob Dylan wrote in "Subterranean Homesick Blues": Don't follow leaders, watch your parkin' meters.

 

Wishing you as always good trading,

 

 

   

 Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer


Market Forecast:  

On a technical basis today’s sharp selloff in the precious metals markets is a game changer. When gold prices broke through the major support level we identified at 1334, the writing on the wall alluded to lower pricing ahead. As you will see in today’s video, the next real level of major support in gold is between 1305 and 1308. The two major factors moving this market lower, next week’s FOMC meeting and the removal of the premium which was placed on gold based upon geopolitical events that have now changed have certainly move the pendulum into the bears camp.

To taper or not to taper that is the question. As we await any significant outcome for next week’s FOMC meeting we can expect continued downside pressure at least until the next support level in gold and silver.

 

Proper Action : 

 

No open trades, gold prices have broken support at 1334. We remain sidelined

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COT LINK  See previous weeks in Historical Commitments of Traders Reports.

 

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Click on bull below for current chart gallery

 

Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer