Gold Futures Dip as Inflation Data Shifts Rate Cut Expectations

Gold futures experienced a modest decline in New York and Globex trading today, with the most active December contract settling at $2,540.30, down $5.50 or 0.22% as of 5:08 PM EDT. This downturn was primarily attributed to a shift in market sentiment regarding the anticipated size of next week's Federal Reserve rate cut, rather than fluctuations in the U.S. dollar.

The catalyst for this sentiment shift was today's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report revealed that inflation rose by 2.5% year-over-year in August, slightly below the consensus estimate of 2.6% projected by MarketWatch. This marks a deceleration from July's annualized rate of 2.9%, indicating a gradual cooling of inflationary pressures.

However, the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, remained steady at an annualized rate of 3.2% for the second consecutive month. This persistence in core inflation has led to a reassessment of expectations for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The CME's FedWatch tool, a barometer of market sentiment, reflected a significant shift in expectations following the CPI report. While a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is still considered certain, the probability of a more aggressive 50-basis point cut has diminished considerably. Currently, there is only a 15% chance of a 50-basis point cut, down from 34% yesterday and 44% a week ago. This adjustment suggests that market participants are now leaning towards a smaller 25-basis point rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting.

The impact of the CPI report extended beyond gold and rate cut expectations, influencing Treasury yields as well. The yield on the two-year note climbed 6.8 basis points to 3.675%, while the 10-year note yield increased by 2.9 basis points to 3.678%. These movements in the bond market further underscore the shifting landscape of monetary policy expectations.

As investors and policymakers digest the latest inflation data, attention now turns to the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) report, scheduled for release tomorrow. This report will provide additional insights into inflationary trends at the wholesale level, potentially offering further clues about the Federal Reserve's likely course of action.

As market participants await the PPI report and next week's FOMC meeting, the gold market is likely to remain sensitive to economic indicators and shifts in monetary policy expectations.

Wishing you as always good trading,