Gold gains $50 weekly but stalls near record despite weak U.S. data

December 20, 2025 — Gold posted its second consecutive weekly gain of approximately $50 per ounce but remained range-bound near $4,340, suggesting the precious metal may have encountered near-term resistance despite a barrage of weak U.S. economic data.

The yellow metal surged Monday but failed to sustain momentum throughout the week, even as economic indicators consistently disappointed. Unemployment climbed to 4.6%, the highest in four years, while October Non-Farm Payrolls showed a loss of 105,000 jobs and November added just 64,000. Retail sales registered flat at 0% month-over-month with downward revisions to prior readings.

Thursday's inflation data showed Core CPI rising just 2.6% year-over-year versus expectations of 3.0%, the slowest pace since early 2021. However, market participants remained skeptical of the report's reliability due to lingering effects from October's six-week government shutdown, which compromised data collection. Rate cut probabilities for January remain at only 20%, barely changed despite the softer print.

Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 52.9, missing the 53.5 forecast, pushing gold to fresh session highs heading into the weekend. Yet the metal's inability to break decisively higher despite consistently negative economic surprises indicates profit-taking and technical resistance are temporarily overwhelming supportive fundamentals.

Structural support remains robust. Exchange-traded fund inflows, continued central bank purchases, and persistent geopolitical tensions provide a firm floor beneath current prices. The U.S.-Venezuela standoff and broader global uncertainties continue driving safe-haven demand.

As markets enter the holiday season with Christmas closing exchanges Thursday, trading desks will operate with reduced staff through early January. This seasonal liquidity thinning should keep price action relatively calm, though any unexpected developments could trigger exaggerated swings given reduced market depth.

The technical consolidation near $4,340 likely reflects natural profit-taking after extraordinary 2025 gains rather than fundamental deterioration. With accommodative monetary policy expected in 2026 and economic data continuing to soften, gold appears well-positioned to challenge the $4,409 intraday record established earlier this month once the current pause concludes.

Wishing you as always good trading,