Buyers Come Back into Gold as Conflict Escalates

Gold opened the week under moderate pressure, with spot prices trading around $5,408 per ounce on Monday, March 2. The metal had entered the week carrying momentum from a strong recent run, though markets were already on edge amid unresolved geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

That tension escalated sharply over the weekend, as reports emerged of joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iranian targets. By Tuesday, gold had pulled back nearly 4%, falling to approximately $5,075 per ounce — a session that underscored an unusual dynamic: geopolitical shock that would normally drive safe-haven buying instead triggered a brief flight to the dollar, restraining gold’s upside. The metal also struggled to hold above the $5,200 level, which had emerged as a near-term ceiling, while resistance near $5,311 capped any meaningful rebound.

By Thursday, March 5, buyers had stepped back in. Spot gold recovered to trade in the $5,141–$5,175 range, posting an intraday gain of roughly 1%, with technical analysts noting an Inverted Hammer pattern forming near support at $5,107 — a potential signal of upward reversal. The $5,000 level, which gold has held above for much of February and March, continues to serve as a psychological floor for the market.

The broader context for gold remains constructive. The metal has more than doubled in price over the past twelve months, rising from roughly $2,624 a year ago to its current levels, after setting an all-time high of $5,595.42 on January 29. Structural drivers — persistent central bank accumulation, a softening U.S. dollar, and elevated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts — remain intact. Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded record inflows of $18.7 billion in January alone, according to the World Gold Council, reflecting broad institutional interest that has tended to cushion dips.

Looking ahead, analyst forecasts for March remain cautiously optimistic, with some projections targeting a return toward $5,500 as central bank demand and dollar weakness continue to underpin the market. Key levels to watch include resistance at $5,380 and $5,419–$5,450 to the upside, while a daily close below $5,160 would be considered a meaningful shift in near-term momentum. The fact that gold has held above the simple 20-day moving average also is a bullish sign for the metal.

This week has served as a reminder that gold’s path higher is rarely linear — but the underlying bid remains firm. For those that would like more information about our services click here.

Wishing you as always good trading,