Gold Futures Surges to Record Above $4,940 as Economic Data and Geopolitical Shifts Realign Markets

Gold futures rebounded to a record above $4,940 per ounce on Thursday as markets recalibrated the balance between resilient US economic data and easing geopolitical risks, with investors finding renewed confidence in the yellow metal's trajectory despite a complex macroeconomic backdrop.

The precious metal's advance came amid a nuanced reading of the latest US economic indicators. While revised GDP figures and firm household spending confirmed the economy remains on solid footing—limiting the case for imminent Federal Reserve policy easing—inflation data reinforced the view of gradual rather than reaccelerating price pressures.  Alongside this Trump’s threats being redacted this week which also should have taken out some of the tailwinds in gold. Yet these factors were seemingly ignored as gold reacted opposite to how it would normally react to these circumstances.

Headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures both rose 0.2% on the month, precisely in line with market expectations. This measured pace signaled that disinflation progress has not stalled even as economic activity stays firm, providing a constructive environment for gold.

Gold has had consistent strong gains for the last three consecutive sessions, each one

The combination helped stabilize expectations around future policy restraint rather than renewed tightening, allowing gold to regain its footing after recent volatility. Markets increasingly view the Fed as likely to maintain its current stance rather than pivot toward additional rate increases, a scenario that typically supports precious metals by limiting the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Adding to the supportive backdrop, President Donald Trump's retreat from tariff threats tied to Greenland and his rejection of military action reduced immediate tail risks for global markets. The de-escalation removed some of the more extreme scenarios that had been weighing on investor sentiment in recent sessions.

However, uncertainty has not fully dissipated. Denmark and European lawmakers maintained a cautious stance in response to earlier rhetoric, suggesting that transatlantic relations remain a variable investor will continue monitoring closely.

From a technical perspective, gold's ability to reclaim and exceed previous highs reinforces the underlying strength of the current bull market. The breakthrough to $4,870 establishes new support levels while opening potential pathways toward psychological resistance at $5,000.

Wishing you as always good trading,