Gold Futures Surpass Key Resistance That Spot Has Yet to Overcome

Gold futures reclaimed the psychologically significant $5,000 threshold on Wednesday, with the April contract advancing $98.40, or 2.01%, to $5,005 at the time of writing — a meaningful technical victory that spot prices have thus far been unable to replicate.

The move also saw futures recapture their 20-day simple moving average, a short-term trend indicator that had briefly given way just one session prior. The breach proved fleeting, underscoring the resilience of the broader uptrend. Indeed, since the start of 2026, gold futures have posted only two daily closes beneath this near-term average — a testament to the consistency of buying pressure that has characterized the metal's ascent.

The longer-term technical picture remains equally constructive. The 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages have all held below spot pricing since August 2025, reflecting what can only be described as exceptionally strong bullish momentum sustained over the better part of six months. Crucially, these averages remain in full bullish alignment — with shorter-term averages stacked above longer-term ones — a configuration that has been intact since January 2025 and is widely regarded by technical analysts as one of the more reliable signals of a durable, well-supported uptrend.

Spot gold, however, tells a slightly more cautious story. Having briefly traded above $5,000, prices subsequently retreated to $4,983.68, a gain of $106, or 2.17%, on the session. Unlike its futures counterpart, spot gold has yet to convincingly reclaim its 20-day moving average, which continues to act as a ceiling rather than a floor.

The technical resistance confronting spot gold is not trivial. At $5,016, prices encounter the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement derived from a long-term data set spanning the move from $3,120 to the all-time high just north of $5,600. This particular retracement framework has demonstrated a notable degree of precision in identifying key inflection points. The 38.2% retracement level accurately foreshadowed the closing price on February 2nd — the second consecutive session of sharp selling that marked the initial rollover from record highs — while the 50% retracement clearly delineated the October 2025 peak, a level that held the distinction of all-time high for more than two months before ultimately being surpassed.

Compounding the resistance picture, the midline of the Bollinger Band — a dynamic measure of the mean price range — is converging near the day's highs, presenting an additional layer of technical overhead that bulls must contend with. Should spot gold muster the momentum to decisively clear both the Fibonacci and Bollinger resistance clustered around current levels, the door would open for a measured advance toward $5,100, with $5,180 representing the next meaningful technical objective beyond that.

Wishing you as always good trading,